So here's how you start a Monday in the markets: with a geopolitical shock that sends oil prices jumping and stocks sliding. U.S. stock futures are pointing lower this morning after President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That's the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman where about a fifth of the world's oil passes through. When you block that, things tend to get expensive.

This comes after a rough Friday, where the Dow closed down about 270 points. The trigger then was Iran blaming Israel for ceasefire violations with attacks on Lebanon. Over the weekend, peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 21 hours. Vice President JD Vance said Washington wouldn't budge on core demands, while Iran called the U.S. asks excessive. So, not a lot of progress on the diplomacy front.

Meanwhile, the bond market is just sitting there watching the drama. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.333%, with the two-year at 3.822%. Traders are pretty sure the Federal Reserve isn't going to move rates this month—the CME's FedWatch tool shows a 96.4% chance they stay put in April. Because when you have a blockade in the Middle East, maybe you don't want to also rock the boat with interest rates.

The big ETFs are feeling the heat too. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.59% at $675.46 in premarket trading, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 0.68% to $606.91. When the market gets nervous, it doesn't discriminate much.

Stocks to Watch Today

Goldman Sachs

Wall Street is waiting for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) to report earnings before the bell. The expectation is for $16.41 per share on revenue of $16.93 billion. Market data indicates GS has been showing strong trends across short, medium, and long terms, with solid momentum. So, if they hit the numbers, maybe they can provide a bit of a counterweight to the geopolitical gloom.

Fastenal

Over in the industrial sector, Fastenal Co. (FAST) is expected to post earnings of 30 cents per share on revenue of $2.19 billion. Market data shows it maintains a strong trend across timeframes with a solid growth score. In a world where supply chains might get more complicated, companies like Fastenal could be interesting to watch.

Children's Place

Not every stock story is about geopolitics. Sometimes it's just about missing earnings. Shares of Children's Place Inc. (PLCE) tumbled more than 16% in premarket trading after the company reported a quarterly loss of $1.86 per share. That was well below the consensus estimate for a loss of $0.96 per share. Market data indicates PLCE has a weak price trend and poor momentum. Ouch.

IDEAYA Biosciences

On the brighter side, IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. (IDYA) soared more than 16% before the bell. The biotech company is set to announce topline results from its ongoing Phase 2/3 registrational trial, OptimUM-02. Market data shows it maintains a strong trend with solid momentum. In healthcare, good trial data can still make a stock jump, even when the world feels a bit shaky.

Friday's Session Recap

Looking back at Friday, it was a mixed bag. Information technology, real estate, and consumer discretionary stocks posted the biggest gains. But health care, consumer staples, and financials declined. Here's how the indices closed:

What the Analysts Are Saying

When you block a major oil chokepoint, economists tend to get worried. Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said the blockade will raise incremental costs for Iran, the U.S., and nations importing crude from the Middle East. He warned the global economy will feel the pinch too. "Companies, countries, and households worldwide are facing the burden of what is likely to be another leg up in the price of energy, helium, fertilizers, etc.," he said. Basically, everything gets more expensive.

Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab, pointed out that higher oil costs won't just hit Asia—they'll affect the U.S. too, since oil is priced globally. "There's growing concern, both in Washington and among investors, that no matter how quickly the war ends, the economic fallout is likely to last for months," he said. So, buckle up.

Economic Calendar This Week

Amid all this, there's still regular economic data to digest. Here's what's on tap:

• Monday: Existing home sales for March at 10 a.m. ET. Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks at 6:20 p.m. ET.
• Tuesday: Producer price index for March at 8:30 a.m. ET. Fed governor Michael Barr speaks at 5:50 p.m. ET.
• Wednesday: Import price index for March and Empire State manufacturing survey for April at 8:30 a.m. ET. Fed governor Michael Barr speaks again at 8:30 a.m. ET, and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 1:45 p.m. ET.
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 8:35 p.m. ET, and Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks at 10:35 a.m. ET.
• Friday: Speeches from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly at 11:30 a.m. ET, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at 12:15 p.m. ET, and Fed governor Christopher Waller at 2 p.m. ET.

Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets

Crude oil futures are up more than 8% in early New York trading, hovering around $104.55 per barrel. When you block the Strait of Hormuz, oil tends to do that.

Gold is down a bit, with the spot price declining 0.32% to around $4,733.17 per ounce. Its last record high was $5,595.46. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.32% at 98.96.

Bitcoin is trading 1.27% lower at $70,801.66 per coin over the last 24 hours. Even crypto isn't immune to risk-off sentiment.

Asian markets closed mostly lower, except for China's CSI 300. Indices in India, Hong Kong, Australia, South Korea, and Japan all fell. European markets are also mostly lower in early trade. It's a global thing.