President Donald Trump may have lost his ability to influence oil markets as tensions with Iran escalate, according to Obsidian Risk Advisors Managing Principal Brett Erickson.

Gas Hits Labor Day High

In a post on the social media platform X on Monday, Erickson pointed to surging oil costs amid the Iran war. "Oil is now pushing up to almost $100/barrel again," he said. Erickson added that Trump had "no real power to jawbone the markets anymore" and said that "Iran clearly intends to sink him at the midterms," and that the "war will not end" in the near future.

Erickson then outlined escalating fuel costs amid the war, which "continues to only escalate further" day by day. "Diesel is hitting all time highs. Gas is hitting Labor Day highs," he said. "We got a long way for oil to still climb WELL into the 100's here," the analyst said.

Elizabeth Warren Slams Labor Day Prices

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also took to X on Monday to criticize the Trump administration, pointing to record-high Labor Day gas prices. "Americans traveling this weekend are getting hit by the highest Labor Day gas prices EVER RECORDED thanks to Donald Trump's war with Iran," the Massachusetts Senator said in her post.

According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price for a gallon of gas on Monday was $4.1505. The motor club said that prices on Labor Day have never been above $4/gallon, with the previous record set in 2012 at $3.82/gallon.

Prices typically taper off this time of the year as producers switch to winter blends of gas. However, despite the Trump administration authorizing the release of winter blend gasoline earlier than usual, prices at the pump for ordinary Americans remain high.

Oil Prices Will Come Down, Trump Says

Amid escalating tensions, Trump reaffirmed that oil prices will come down once the U.S. wins the war with Iran. "Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran," he said, touting $2/gallon gas once the war was over.

Notably, Trump had reportedly told Pentagon officials that he sought to declare an end to the war on Iran. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ending in October 2026 were trading at $92.95 at the time of writing this article, while Brent crude futures ending in November 2026 were up 0.52% at $97.58 at press time.