Here's something that might surprise you: most American business leaders aren't expecting tariffs to go away anytime soon. According to a recent PwC survey, a whopping 86% of U.S. executives think import taxes will be a significant part of the country's economic landscape for years to come. This isn't just a Trump-era phenomenon anymore—it's becoming a permanent feature.

Kristin Bohl, a customs and international trade partner at PwC, put it bluntly: elevated tariffs are unlikely to be reduced. She pointed out that when Trump first imposed tariffs, companies warned about inflation and economic fallout. But then, she noted, "the Biden administration came in and did not remove them." In fact, tariffs were expanded under Biden and have been increased even further in Trump's second term.

"So we've seen tariffs be put in place and endure throughout three separate, albeit two mirroring, administrations," Bohl said. That's a fancy way of saying: once tariffs are in place, they tend to stick around.

Rohit Kumar from PwC added that global markets will likely adapt to Trump-era tariffs by 2029, making them the new normal. Why? Because it's hard to kill something that's making money. Kumar noted that terminating tariffs becomes difficult when they're generating substantial revenue for the federal government. This is especially relevant given the federal budget situation isn't improving and we're heading toward a Social Security trust fund insolvency date around 2032 or early 2033.

Revenues Beat Politics

Here's the real kicker: tariffs might be more about dollars than ideology. PwC trade experts echoed Wharton professor João Gomes, who argued that despite political opposition, tariffs are likely to persist because they generate significant government revenue. This makes Democrats just as likely as Republicans to rely on them.

Think about it: former President Joe Biden didn't broadly remove President Donald Trump's first-term tariffs, especially the major Section 301 duties on Chinese imports. He made some limited adjustments and restored some product-specific tariff exclusions, but the core structure remained. It was targeted relief, not a full rollback.

The numbers tell the story. A February Tax Foundation report estimated tariffs could generate $1.6–$2 trillion in revenue from 2026 to 2035. In 2026 alone, they could raise $171 billion—the largest tax increase since 1993. That could drop to about $54 billion without the IEEPA tariffs (which the Supreme Court struck down in February), but even that lower number is substantial. Notably, the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York ordered the administration in early March to refund billions collected in tariffs, but the overall revenue potential remains huge.

Currently, the overall effective tariff rate for the U.S. is 11.8%, its highest level since the early 1940s (excluding last year), according to Yale's Budget Lab estimates. That's not a temporary spike—that's a structural shift.

Tariffs Widen Deficit, Fuel Inflation

Of course, there are consequences. The imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration contributed to a record $162 billion trade deficit in March 2025 as U.S. businesses rushed to front-load imports ahead of their implementation. Imports surged to $342.7 billion, rising 5% month-on-month and 30.8% year-on-year, driven by stockpiling everything from machinery to consumer electronics.

These tariffs also fueled inflation. A Federal Reserve study found a direct "dollar-for-dollar" price increase for consumers. A FEDS Note by economists concluded that tariffs introduced last year significantly reshaped the U.S. economy, raising core goods PCE prices by 3.1% by February 2026. The study found tariffs fully explain excess inflation in core goods and contributed 0.8% to overall core PCE inflation.

So here's the situation: tariffs are driving up prices for consumers and contributing to trade imbalances, but they're also generating billions in government revenue at a time when the federal budget needs all the help it can get. Business leaders seem to have done the math and concluded that the revenue argument will win out over economic theory. They're betting that what started as a political tool has become a fiscal necessity—and that means tariffs aren't going anywhere soon.