Peter Schiff Warns Oil's Surge Could Make November Voting 'Much More Costly'

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Veteran investor Peter Schiff warned Tuesday that oil's breakout above $90 a barrel could make voting in November's midterms "much more costly" for Americans, as escalating U.S.-Iran strikes send crude prices surging and complicate the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision.

'It Won't Be Long Before It's Over $100'

"Oil is breaking out, now trading above $90," Schiff said in a post on X, predicting it "won't be long" before crude tops $100 a barrel.

He said the move would push up both the CPI and bond yields, making it "much more costly" for voters heading to the polls in November's midterm elections, and warned, "the politics get even worse if the Fed hikes rates in September."

Crude oil prices were trading at $90.558 per barrel at the time of writing, up 0.38%, while Brent crude was up 0.67% to $95.288 per barrel.

Diesel Prices Are Adding to the Political Pressure

August's national average gas price hit a record $4.056 a gallon, with GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan estimating Americans paid $10.51 billion more for gas last month than a year earlier, while some states like Utah and Idaho have seen per-gallon prices climb by more than $1.60 since the Iran conflict began in February.

According to a Financial Times report last month, rising diesel and fuel costs could weigh on Republicans heading into the midterms, citing a poll showing more than half of American voters disapprove of Trump's handling of grocery and fuel prices.

Prediction markets now put a 51% chance on Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate in November, up from just 26% a year ago, according to Polymarket.

The midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3.

Yields Are Already Climbing Ahead of the Fed's Meeting

Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management, echoed Schiff's concern, saying rising oil prices and rates could weigh on stocks just as the Fed decision looms.

"Fed is now in play," Gerber said on X. "Not a good set up for the fall."

On Monday, Schiff said the 10-year Treasury yield's climb toward 2007 levels reflects a structural bear market, not a temporary spike, arguing the U.S. debt load, now more than $40 trillion, makes a repeat of historic yield highs "more plausible" than markets assume.

Markets now price in roughly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting.