Here's a trade policy reality check for Mexico: don't expect those tariffs to disappear anytime soon. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has reportedly told Mexican industry leaders that the tariffs President Donald Trump imposed on auto and steel imports are likely to stick around, even as the two countries prepare to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this year.
Think of it as setting the table before the main course arrives. Greer delivered this message during meetings in Mexico City on Monday with chambers representing commerce, automotive, and iron and steel sectors, according to a Reuters report. The talks were focused on objectives for revamping the USMCA, which faces a review deadline on July 1. A source told the publication that Greer noted Trump supports the tariffs and that a return to a zero-tariff global system is not expected.
This marks the first time Greer has publicly stated that Mexico will have to live with some level of tariffs post-renogotiation. He did mention that U.S. officials are exploring ways to assist Mexico, though he offered no specifics. Formal negotiations for the USMCA review are scheduled to begin the week of May 25.
Mexico's Tariff Tightrope
For Mexico, this isn't just a negotiating point—it's an economic vulnerability. The country's auto and steel industries are heavily exposed because they rely so much on exports to the U.S. After decades of tariff-free trade under NAFTA and its successor, the USMCA, Trump imposed a 25% duty on auto imports last year. He later lowered rates for several other countries, which left Mexico at a distinct competitive disadvantage. Now, the country is trying to secure relief through the USMCA talks.
On Monday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the country aims to lock in a preliminary deal on steel and automotive tariffs before finalizing the broader USMCA review. It's a clear attempt to address the most immediate pain point first.
Greer's latest comments fit into a broader pattern of hardline trade rhetoric. Back in December, he hinted that the Trump administration might consider withdrawing from the USMCA in 2026, even though the deal's text suggests members should stay in until at least 2036. Then in March, the administration launched a sweeping trade investigation targeting 16 partners, including China, Mexico, and the EU. That move was an attempt to replace Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which the Supreme Court had ruled illegal.
So, as the USMCA renegotiation clock ticks toward its July 1 deadline, the starting positions are becoming clear. The U.S. is signaling that tariffs are not a bargaining chip to be traded away—they're a feature of the current trade landscape. For Mexican exporters, that means planning for a future where crossing the border comes with a cost.
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