So here's what's happening with Chevron (CVX) stock on Monday: it's going up. Because when there's trouble in the Middle East, oil prices jump, and oil companies tend to benefit. It's one of those basic market relationships that somehow never gets old.
Specifically, Chevron shares were up 1.36% at $186.50 in premarket trading. The catalyst? U.S.-Iran tensions flared up again over the weekend, dashing hopes for a lasting peace deal and reminding everyone why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much to global oil markets.
This weekend, Iran had declared the Strait of Hormuz reopened. But by Saturday, vessel traffic through that key shipping lane was restricted again, with state media saying the U.S. "did not fulfill their obligations." Then on Sunday, President Trump warned he would "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" if Tehran didn't agree to Washington's terms to end the conflict. The fragile ceasefire is set to expire this week.
So, naturally, oil prices surged. As of early Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude was up 5.72% to $88.65, and Brent crude jumped 4.70% to $94.63. The energy sector (XLE) was up 1.49%, making it one of the few bright spots in early trading as investors head into a pivotal week of earnings.
Doubling Down in Venezuela
Meanwhile, Chevron has been busy elsewhere. Last week, the company agreed to an asset swap with Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to strengthen its heavy oil position in Venezuela. Under the deal, Chevron will increase its stake in Petroindependencia to 49% and gain rights to develop the Ayacucho 8 area near the Petropiar project in the Orinoco Oil Belt.
It's a strategic move that shows Chevron is still betting on Venezuela's oil potential, even as geopolitical risks persist in other parts of the world.
Earnings on the Horizon
The countdown is on: Chevron is set to report earnings on May 1, 2026. Here's what analysts are expecting:
- EPS Estimate: $1.40 (down from $2.18 year-over-year)
- Revenue Estimate: $51.29 billion (up from $47.61 billion year-over-year)
- Valuation: P/E of 27.8x (indicating a premium valuation relative to peers)
The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $196.27. Recent analyst moves include:
- BNP Paribas: Upgraded to Outperform with a $174.00 target (April 17)
- RBC Capital: Maintained Outperform and raised target to $220.00 (April 13)
- Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight and raised target to $222.00 (April 9)
JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram expects the restoration of the company's "key upstream and downstream profit drivers" to provide "a strong foundation for earnings growth" over the remainder of the year, backed by elevated commodity prices and refining margins.
Interestingly, Jayaram added that the war in Iran is likely to affect Chevron far less than its peers. But it's worth noting that major oil producers, including Chevron, are facing significant disruptions that offset potential gains. According to reports, Chevron lost about 6% of its global production in the first quarter.
Market Profile
Looking at Chevron's market profile reveals a strength-tilted picture:
- Momentum: Bullish (Score: 70.45) — The stock is holding up better than many names despite recent choppiness.
- Value: Bullish (Score: 76.02) — Screens as relatively attractive on valuation factors versus the broader market.
- Growth: Bullish (Score: 73.23) — Growth metrics are coming in stronger than many large-cap peers.
This lines up with Monday's premarket resilience in energy stocks, though the chart still needs to repair short-term momentum after slipping below the 20-day trend.
So there you have it: geopolitical tension boosts oil prices, oil prices boost energy stocks, and Chevron gets a lift. Plus, the company has been making strategic moves in Venezuela and has earnings coming up that analysts are watching closely. It's a classic energy sector story with a few modern twists.
