So, where are gas prices headed? According to President Donald Trump, the answer is... well, it could be a few different places.
In an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News's "Sunday Morning Futures," the President offered a forecast that covered most of the bases. "It could be, or the same or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same," he said, discussing the potential direction of oil and gas prices by the time of the forthcoming midterm elections in November.
When pressed further, he added, "Eventually, it's going to be lowered. It might not happen initially, but it's going to go down." He also offered a note of mild surprise about the recent trend: "Frankly, the gas hasn't gone up as much as I thought."
This isn't just idle speculation at the pump. The comments come against the backdrop of a significant geopolitical move: a U.S. military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage is basically the world's oil artery; about a fifth of global oil supply passes through it. Any hiccup there sends shockwaves through energy markets.
Trump initiated the blockade in response to Iran's alleged illegal toll collection and mine placement in the strait. He also touched on the ongoing U.S. conflict with Iran during the interview, stating, "I think this won't be that much longer," and adding, "They're wiped out, Maria, they're wiped out."
The market impact is already being felt in American wallets. According to AAA, the average gas price in the U.S. is now $4.125 per gallon, up from $3.598 a month ago. The conflict's disruption of oil flows through the strait contributed to gasoline prices seeing their largest single-month increase since 1967 back in March, surging 21.2%. That surge made gasoline the dominant driver of inflation that month, accounting for nearly 75% of the 0.9% Consumer Price Index increase—the biggest monthly rise since June 2022.
On the other side, Iran isn't mincing words about what comes next. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf cautioned that the current gasoline costs would seem cheap in comparison once the blockade takes full effect. "Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called 'blockade', Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas," he stated.
So, to recap the President's prediction: prices could go down, stay the same, or go up a bit. It's a forecast that manages to acknowledge the intense market uncertainty created by the very situation his administration is managing. Whether drivers will be paying more, less, or about the same by November might depend on how quickly that situation in the Strait of Hormuz gets resolved.
