For three years, Wall Street kept raising the ceiling on Nvidia. This week, it brought out the chainsaw.
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) lost its founder and chief executive Jensen Huang on Thursday, with Colette Kress stepping in as interim CEO.
Analysts are now rewriting their models without him.
At least nine major Wall Street firms cut their price targets today, according to MarketDash Analyst Ratings. Their average target fell to about $217 from roughly $343, a 37% haircut overnight.
Yet, one bank went much further than the rest.
| Firm | Rating | Price Target |
|---|
| Evercore ISI | Outperform → In Line | $465 → $186 |
| Bernstein | Outperform → Market Perform | $400 → $200 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $350 → $250 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | $340 → $240 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | $330 → $230 |
| Stifel | Buy | $315 → $205 |
| Needham | Buy | $300 → $200 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $300 → $220 |
| Citigroup | Buy | $285 → $225 |
Evercore Prices Nvidia Like Apple in 2012
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis downgraded Nvidia to In Line from Outperform in a note Thursday and cut his target by 60% to $186 from $465.
He also removed the stock from the firm's list of best core ideas.
His case is not about chip demand. It is about how much investors will pay for each dollar of Nvidia's profit.
In fact, Lipacis is more upbeat on earnings than the Street. He sees 2027 earnings of $16.92 a share, above the $15.32 consensus cited in the note.
The new target values Nvidia at eight times his 2028 earnings estimate of $23.27 a share.
That multiple comes from Apple Inc. (AAPL). After the iPhone launch, Apple's price-to-earnings ratio fell from 38 times to eight times between 2007 and 2012, even as its earnings kept growing, Lipacis said.
Nvidia is already on that road. Its multiple has dropped to 12 times from 26 times in May, and from 60 times in 2023, according to the note.
"We expect NVDA's P/E multiple will continue to compress."
In what he calls the "Late-Innings of the Semi Cycle," chip valuations tend to fall once profits top their previous peak, revenue growth slows and inventories pile up across the supply chain.
The Missing Number Two
The leadership crisis adds fuel to that view.
Lipacis said Nvidia has no obvious succession plan, nor "a visible #2 operational or strategic leader." An extended search for a new chief executive, he said, could leave the company "in a leadership limbo."
The Spending Boom Is Losing Speed
Lipacis also flagged a late-cycle signal from Nvidia's biggest customers.
The four largest cloud companies raised their 2026 capital spending forecasts by just 1% this earnings season, the smallest increase in at least 12 quarters, according to Evercore.
For 2027, those companies are now expected to spend $1 trillion. Yet the upward revision slowed to 6%, from 24% in July and 38% in April.
Lipacis's scenarios show how wide the range has become. His bear case, at seven times 2028 earnings, puts the stock at $89. His bull case reaches $387, but only if investors pay 21 times earnings and the data center buildout accelerates further.
The Targets Still Point Higher
Nvidia traded near $165 on Thursday afternoon, down 4.8%, after plunging as much as 14.3% earlier.
Even Evercore's target sits about 12% above that price. The nine-firm average sits about 31% higher.
The lowest calls, Craig-Hallum at $180 and Melius Research at $185, both downgrades to Hold, also sit above the stock.
Meanwhile, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has gained 4.4% this week, while Nvidia has lost 15.6%.
Nvidia reports third-quarter results on Tuesday, Nov. 17, after the close. For the first time in more than three decades, Huang will not be the one explaining them.
