Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) is having one of those days. The stock is down 6% after MSCI announced plans to drop the company from its global indexes, and to make matters worse, longtime critic Peter Schiff chose Thursday to take a swing at the math underpinning the whole operation.
Schiff's argument, in short: Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will not keep appreciating 30% a year, and the entire STRC structure falls apart if it doesn't.
Schiff Takes Aim at the 30% Assumption
Here's the setup. Schiff says STRC's whole design depends on Bitcoin growing 30% annually, which is what supposedly lets Strategy pay STRC shareholders a 12% yield while still turning a profit. That's a generous assumption in any market, and Schiff pointed out that Bitcoin lost 6.5% last year and is down 17% so far this year. There's simply no basis, he argues, for assuming that 30% figure holds going forward.
His post followed one from Michael Saylor captioned "Let $STRC do the heavy lifting," paired with an AI-generated video showing a woman flying a car and crediting STRC dividends for the purchase. It's part of the marketing push touting the fund's 12% annual yield paid daily.
The replies to Saylor's post skewed sharply negative. One user called the AI content "slop" that "pisses people off during a bear market," while another wrote that MSTR shareholders are "losing thousands while this guy is posting cartoons." Tough crowd, but fair given the timing.
MSCI Adds Fresh Pressure
MSCI will remove Strategy from its global indexes on Dec. 1, Reuters reported, after determining the company resembles an investment fund rather than an operating business. That's a meaningful distinction for index inclusion, and it comes with real consequences.
Strategy warned last year that exclusion could force $2.8 billion in forced stock liquidation. JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) has estimated outflows could reach $8.8 billion if other index providers follow MSCI's lead. That's the kind of number that makes you sit up straight.
It's not just Strategy, either. Metaplanet (OTC: MTPLF) and UK-based Yellow Cake also made MSCI's exclusion list, while SharpLink (NASDAQ: SBET) appeared on a separate watchlist for companies MSCI is monitoring. The index provider is clearly drawing a line around what counts as an operating company versus a crypto treasury vehicle.
Where MSTR Stands Technically
MSTR fell roughly 7%, testing its descending channel's lower boundary near its rising support zone around $112 to $114. Shares trade below all key major EMAs, with RSI at 33.58 signaling weak momentum approaching oversold territory.
Key levels for MSTR:
- $112: support level, a daily close below exposes $110 and then $100
- $120 to $123: resistance zone if the current support holds
So the stock is sitting at a decision point. Hold $112 and there's a path back toward $120 to $123. Lose it, and the next stops are $110 and then $100. With the MSCI removal looming on Dec. 1 and Bitcoin under pressure, the bears have the momentum for now.
