Here is a sentence you probably did not expect to read in 2026: a dollar of Nvidia's future profits now costs less than a dollar of UPS's.
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), the world's foremost AI chipmaker, saw its stock fall as low as 11.9 times forward earnings on Thursday morning. That is the lowest reading in TradingView data going back to May 2016. Investors are now paying roughly 19% more for a dollar of United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) future profits than for a dollar of Nvidia's.
Even after shares pared losses, Nvidia's forward multiple stood at 13.6 times, still below UPS's 14.1 times. At its late-2021 peak, it was close to 90.
What Else Is Nvidia Cheaper Than?
Airlines that burn jet fuel and swing to losses in every recession are pricier. United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) trades at 13.9 times forward earnings, and Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) at 14.1 times.
So are Cummins Inc. (CMI), the diesel-engine maker, and Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL), the company behind Spam, both at 14.4 times.
Here is the full leaderboard, sorted from most expensive to least:
| Company | Forward P/E |
|---|
| Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) | 21.7x |
| Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) | 19.7x |
| FedEx Corp. (FDX) | 16.1x |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) | 14.5x |
| Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) | 14.4x |
| Cummins Inc. (CMI) | 14.4x |
| United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) | 14.1x |
| Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) | 14.1x |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) | 13.9x |
| Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) | 13.6x |
Source: TradingView
How Nvidia Got Here
Co-founder Jensen Huang stepped down as CEO and board member effective immediately, after two weeks of allegations that he had an extramarital affair with a Chinese intelligence asset.
Finance chief Colette Kress is now interim CEO, and former Synopsys CEO Harvey C. Jones became the board's first-ever chair.
Shares fell as much as 14.3% to $148.80 on Thursday, before paring losses to $163.40, down 6%.
The stock is now 31.7% below its record close of $239.24 on Oct. 6, roughly $1.8 trillion in lost market value.
UPS shares have gained 17.4% over the past month, while Nvidia has lost 27.2%.
Wall Street Prices In the Missing Founder
"The stock is now pricing in a leadership discount, as the Jensen premium evaporates," Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, said in emailed comments.
"Nvidia can survive without Jensen Huang, but it may not be the star company and stock that it has been for the past three years," he added.
JPMorgan's Harlan Sur still rates the stock Overweight. Sur cut his price target to $215 from $320 in a note Thursday. He applied a multiple of about 15 times fiscal 2028 earnings, after cutting China-related shipments.
In other words, even a bullish bank now values Nvidia at roughly the price of a parcel company.
"Who will lead the company through that roadmap is now an open question," Sur said.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) slipped 2% on Thursday and is still up 34.7% this year. Nvidia is down 13.9%.
The first test comes Nov. 17, when Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results with Kress in charge.
If the numbers hold, Nvidia looks cheap next to brown trucks and diesel engines. If they don't, the parcel company may not be the floor.
