Cantor Fitzgerald nixed Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) from its top picks list as analyst C.J. Muse argues that the worst-case scenario appears to be playing out: co-founder Jensen Huang is likely out as CEO.
The firm kept an Overweight rating on the stock but lowered its price target to $250 from $350 in a note Thursday titled "A Very Sad Day." The note comes on the heels of a Wednesday night board meeting in which directors met to discuss Huang's future.
Nvidia shares fell 7.4% to $160.81 in premarket trading Thursday, on track for their lowest close since July 8, 2025.
The stock had already lost 27.4% from its record close of $239.24 on Oct. 6, 2026. At premarket levels, the drawdown widened to nearly 33%.
The selling spilled over to chipmakers. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) slipped 2.7% before the bell.
Cantor Sees Huang As America's AI Leader
Muse sees Huang's exit as more than a company problem, calling it "a significant 'W' for China in the most consequential technology race."
In Cantor's view, AI will decide who wins on the global stage, and the consequences of Huang's departure cannot yet be fully appreciated. For that reason, the firm called it a "sad day" not only for Nvidia but also for U.S. leadership in AI.
Muse also credited Huang directly for the current state of the industry. According to Cantor, today's frontier AI models would not exist without him, and neither would the productivity gains that AI is expected to bring to the global economy.
Nvidia Has No Succession Plan
Another problem, according to Muse, is Nvidia's lack of succession planning. Huang's departure would leave a major void at the top of the company.
Cantor's best guess is that Nvidia will name either Ian Buck, who runs its hyperscale and high-performance computing business, or CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO.
Beyond the near-term leadership question, Muse listed several risks. These include a loss of talent, supply-chain leadership, particularly at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), pricing negotiations and market share at key customers.
As a result, the consensus view will likely shift toward lower market share and lower gross margins, all else equal, according to Cantor.
Still, Muse said Nvidia boasts about 42,000 employees—internal talent that can maintain Nvidia's lead in AI.
Why Cantor Is Not Walking Away From Nvidia Stock
Cantor sees its earnings forecasts for calendar 2027 and 2028 as largely locked in.
The firm expects earnings per share of $16.50 in 2027 and $26 in 2028. At Wednesday's close of $173.73, that valued Nvidia at just 9.7 times 2027 earnings and 6.2 times 2028 earnings.
In the near term, however, fears of market share losses and margin compression are likely to push the shares lower.
Cantor sees a floor at around nine times 2027 earnings, or $150 a share. The new $250 target equals roughly 10 times its 2028 estimate.
Given how important Huang is to the company, a clear vision from Nvidia's board is essential, according to Muse.
Wall Street Turns Cautious on Nvidia
Cantor was not the only firm to reset its view on Thursday, according to MarketDash Analyst Ratings.
- Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon downgraded Nvidia to Market Perform from Outperform and halved his price target to $200 from $400.
- Evercore ISI Group's Mark Lipacis cut the stock to In-Line from Outperform and slashed his target to $186 from $465.
- Oppenheimer's Rick Schafer also downgraded the shares to Perform from Outperform.
- Before Thursday's wave, Baird's Tristan Gerra had already moved to Neutral from Outperform, cutting his target to $200 from $500. Citigroup trimmed its target to $285 from $315, and Wells Fargo to $300 from $315.
- Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore kept an Overweight rating and a $300 target.
- Evercore's new target sits about 16% above Thursday's premarket price. Cantor's implies upside of roughly 55%.
That gap shows how hard it has become to put a price on Nvidia without Huang at the helm.
