President Donald Trump said last month that the US will not restart attacks against Iran before the midterm elections, and that the two countries are having "productive" talks. Markets, being markets, took him at his word. That turned out to be a costly assumption.
According to a Wall Street Journal report on Monday, the Trump administration has reportedly conducted strikes on Qeshm Island in recent weeks, hitting the island multiple times in secret. The report notes that the lack of public announcements, along with the discreet nature of the attacks, could suggest the administration does not want to signal it is ready for escalation. Which is one way to run a bombing campaign: quietly.
The Prediction Market Blinks
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that lets users wager on outcomes using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, runs a contract asking a simple question: "US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?" Over $2 million has been bet on it so far.
On Nov. 2, the odds stood above 96%. After reports of the strikes surfaced, they cratered to less than 1%, a decline of over 94%. That is not a market repricing. That is a market changing its mind about reality.
Trump's 'One Or Two Sites'
Trump told reporters in Palm Beach on Saturday that negotiations with Iran are going fine, while also arguing the US could neutralize "one or two sites" quickly. Both things can be true, apparently: the talks are productive, and also there are sites that need neutralizing. Bettors, at least, have stopped believing the first part.
