President Donald Trump said Thursday that the U.S. will not restart attacks against Iran before the November midterm Congressional elections, adding that the two countries are having "productive" talks.

That's the reassuring version of the story. The less reassuring version: Trump is also considering joining Saudi military operations against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

What the Prediction Market Thinks

So will the informal ceasefire actually make it to November? That's exactly what the prediction market is betting on.

Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform where users wager on outcomes using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, is running a contract titled "US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?"

Over $150,000 has been bet on the contract so far.

Bettors have placed a 75% probability on the US-Iran ceasefire continuing through the midterms.

Missile Attack on Riyadh Airport

A missile strike on Saudi Arabia's King Khalid International Airport resulted in the deaths of 12 people and injured over 300. This was followed by a second strike on Sunday that killed one and injured several.

On Saturday, Trump said he was considering U.S. involvement in Saudi strikes against the rebels.

“We may. We’re going to look at it,” Trump told reporters. “We just found out about the recent attack. So we’ll make a decision. We move very quickly.”

Iran Escalates Attacks on Ships

Iran has intensified attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Iran has launched more than a dozen strikes on shipping since the end of September.

The U.S. military continues to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports as Tehran remains dissatisfied with the U.S. proposal to end the war and restore shipping, calling the U.S. response “insufficient.”