Every gold rush needs a pickaxe seller, and in the AI semiconductor boom, that seller keeps being Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM). Analysts at Counterpoint Research expect the company's growth to accelerate through the second half of 2026 as advanced-node demand and packaging capacity stay tight.

The numbers back it up. Counterpoint said Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue rose 34% year over year and 12% sequentially to $40.2 billion in the second quarter. That gave the company about 42% of the broader Foundry 2.0 market, up from 38% in 2025. The research firm expects full-year 2026 revenue to grow about 43%, which implies growth of nearly 50% in the second half.

Why AI Demand Keeps TSMC at the Center

Counterpoint Associate Director Brady Wang said the AI investment cycle has broadened across pure-play foundries, non-memory chipmakers and outsourced semiconductor assembly and test companies. Even so, he said Taiwan Semiconductor remains the "central beneficiary."

The firm estimates Taiwan Semiconductor's CoWoS advanced-packaging supply-demand gap at about 20% in 2026. It expects the shortfall to narrow to roughly 10% in 2027 as in-house capacity expands toward 185,000 wafers per month.

Counterpoint said Taiwan Semiconductor's second-half growth will depend on the ramp of its N2 process, wafer price increases and planned CoWoS capacity additions. Tight packaging capacity is currently limiting AI product shipments, prompting Taiwan Semiconductor to increase back-end investment while customers develop alternative packaging options.

Samsung and Intel Gain as Customers Seek Alternatives

Senior Analyst William Li said Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (SSNLF) and Intel Corp. (INTC) are also benefiting as customers look for additional manufacturing sources.

Samsung held the No. 2 foundry position with about 4% market share during the quarter, supported by SF4 and SF5 demand and higher wafer prices. Intel, meanwhile, has gained traction with its EMIB-T packaging technology, which has been adopted for Google's next-generation TPU, according to Counterpoint.

Still, Li said neither company currently matches Taiwan Semiconductor's combination of advanced-node scale, manufacturing yields and packaging execution.

The AI Boom Is Broadening Across the Chip Supply Chain

The broader Foundry 2.0 market reached a record $96.6 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 25% from a year earlier and 11% sequentially. Counterpoint attributed the growth to demand for AI GPUs, custom ASICs, server CPUs, networking chips and power-management semiconductors.

Non-Taiwan Semiconductor pure-play foundry revenue rose 18% year over year. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. led that group with 36% growth, helped by demand for domestic AI chips in China. Hua Hong and Nexchip posted growth of 17% and 21%, respectively.

Meanwhile, outsourced semiconductor assembly and test revenue rose 22% to $12.6 billion. ASE Technology posted 24% growth, while Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) grew 26%, as advanced packaging, wafer probing and AI processor testing demand strengthened.

Counterpoint expects the Foundry 2.0 market to maintain double-digit growth through the second half of 2026. However, it flagged CoWoS and substrate shortages, higher wafer and packaging costs, weak consumer demand and trade-policy uncertainty as key risks.

TSM Price Action: Taiwan Semiconductor shares were down 0.49% at $454.72 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to market data.