Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Sept. 30 with Wall Street focused on tight memory supply, rising prices, and AI-driven demand, while analysts see further earnings upside and YieldMaxETFs strategist Mike Khouw expects the stock's outsized rally to make another similarly large percentage move less likely.
Wall Street expects $31.45 in EPS, up from $3.03 a year earlier, on revenue of $50.75 billion, compared with $11.31 billion in the prior-year period.
Khouw Expects a More Rangebound Stock
Khouw told CNBC on Monday that only Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has added more market value than Micron among S&P 500 companies this year. He also highlighted Micron's revenue growth from roughly $4 billion in fiscal 2023 to $41.5 billion last quarter.
The market is pricing in roughly a 6% move higher or lower after earnings. Khouw believes Micron's larger size makes another percentage move comparable with its earlier rally less likely.
He expects the stock to remain broadly within its recent range and outlined a strategy based on Micron staying between roughly $900 and $1,300 through November. Including the income from that trade, his estimated break-even range runs from about $800 to $1,365.
JPMorgan Sees Beat-And-Raise Potential
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterated an Overweight rating and $1,540 price forecast, expecting Micron to outperform August-quarter Street estimates of $51.4 billion in revenue, 86.2% gross margin and $31.73 in EPS.
Sur expects DRAM average selling prices to rise more than 20% sequentially, while NAND pricing could increase about 20% as high-capacity enterprise SSD supply remains tight.
He also expects Micron's data-center revenue to exceed its May-quarter annualized run rate of more than $100 billion, with data-center SSD revenue remaining above $5 billion.
For the November quarter, Sur expects guidance above consensus forecasts of $56.3 billion in revenue, 86.5% gross margin and $35.71 in EPS.
JPMorgan estimates the HBM market could reach $160 billion in 2027 and $282 billion in 2028. Its analysis points to HBM shortages of 20% in 2026, 19% in 2027 and 16% in 2028.
Sur also projects more than $24 billion in August-quarter free cash flow, up from $18.3 billion in May, and sees future share repurchases as another potential value driver.
Bank of America Focuses on Margin Durability
Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya reiterated a Buy rating and $1,550 price forecast.
Arya said the key question heading into earnings is whether Micron can sustain gross margins in the mid-80% range through fiscal 2027, rather than near-term memory pricing.
He estimates margins at that level could support fiscal 2027 EPS of $150 to $200, more than double earnings from the current fiscal year.
At those earnings levels, Arya said Micron could trade near seven times forward earnings, compared with the roughly 10 times multiple the company has historically sustained.
BMO Sees Memory Supercycle Continuing
BMO analyst Harsh Kumar, who carries an Outperform rating and $1,300 price forecast, raised his estimates after memory pricing exceeded his expectations.
Kumar said one distributor estimated demand at roughly three times available supply and expects the industry to remain undersupplied throughout 2027 and potentially into 2028.
He sees agentic AI driving stronger server DRAM demand, particularly for DDR5, while growing HBM production further constrains conventional DRAM supply.
Kumar expects NAND flash could become the next major bottleneck and potentially post the strongest price increases next year.
He also sees limited near-term relief from additional supply because new fabrication plants typically require two to three years to build and cost roughly $8 billion to $10 billion.
Micron trades at about 24.1 times earnings. The stock carries a Buy consensus rating and an average price forecast of $1,541.09.
On Sept. 28, Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating and a $1,400 price forecast. Baird maintained an Outperform rating and raised its forecast to $1,520. Rosenblatt maintained a Buy rating and a $1,500 price forecast on Sept. 24.
Micron Top ETF Exposure
- iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX): 8.78% Weight
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ): 8.80% Weight
- State Street SPDR NYSE Technology ETF (NYSE:XNTK): 8.87% Weight
Significance: Because MU carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.
Micron Price Action
MU Stock Price Activity: Micron Technology shares were trading higher by 0.79% at $1072.90 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to market data.
