It's Tuesday, and the stock market is waking up on the wrong side of the bed. U.S. futures are pointing lower across the board, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all set to open in the red. This follows a downbeat Friday session, and the mood hasn't improved much over the long weekend.
The big story this morning is oil. Brent crude has climbed back above $99 a barrel, and that's putting pressure on everything. The trigger? National gas prices hit a record holiday high of $4.15 a gallon on Monday. That's not exactly the kind of record you want to set.
President Donald Trump, never one to shy away from a bold prediction, took to Truth Social to assure everyone that oil prices "will drop precipitously" once the conflict with Iran ends. He's forecasting prices will fall to "Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon." We'll see about that.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.81%, and the two-year is at 4.38%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in a 60.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates at its September meeting. So, yeah, there's a lot to digest.
Here's a quick look at where the major indices stand this morning:
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were both lower in pre-market trading. SPY was down 0.33% at $767.68, while QQQ slipped 0.093% to $718.29.
Novartis
- Novartis AG (NVS) dropped 12.77% after disclosing that its pelacarsen phase III Lp(a) HORIZON trial did not meet its primary endpoint. That's a significant setback for the drug candidate.
- Market data indicates that NVS maintains a weak price trend in the short term but a strong trend in the long and medium terms, with a good quality score.
ASML Holding
- ASML Holding NV (ASML) rose 1.57% as it formed a collaborative industry initiative with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) to drive the transition to 12-inch photomasks, maximizing the value of High NA EUV lithography. This is a big deal for the semiconductor industry.
- Market data indicates that ASML maintains a strong price trend in the long and medium term but a weak trend in the short term, with a good growth score.
iSpecimen
- iSpecimen Inc. (ISPC) jumped 27.92% after the company announced plans to acquire Foldlab AI assets for $4.5 million. That's a big move for a small-cap stock.
- Market data indicates that ISPC maintains a weak price trend in the long, short, and medium terms.
Casey's General Stores
- Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY) was up 3.16% as analysts expect it to post quarterly earnings of $6.75 per share on revenue of $5.57 billion after the closing bell. The market seems optimistic about the convenience store chain's results.
- Market data indicates that CASY maintains a weak price trend in the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term, with a moderate value.
Cues From Last Session
On Friday, gaining industrials and tech stocks bucked the trend as health care, consumer discretionary, and energy led most declining sectors lower. Here's how the major indices closed out the week:
Insights From Analysts
Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick remains notably bullish on the U.S. stock market, arguing that strong momentum could help equities defy traditional seasonal slumps.
While acknowledging post-holiday headwinds—such as the nine-consecutive-year losing streak for major indexes on the Tuesday following Labor Day—and September's historical reputation as the "worst month of the year," Detrick emphasizes that strong fundamentals and market breadth paint a far more optimistic picture for 2026.
"Yes, September is historically the worst month of the year. Get ready to hear that a lot next week," Detrick posted on X. "But things do pretty well when August is green and the year is off to a solid start."
Highlighting historical data since World War II, Detrick notes that when the S&P 500 records a positive August following double-digit year-to-date gains, September averages a 1.0% gain, with the final four months closing higher 10 out of 11 times.
Pointing to technical support, he advises investors to remain net optimistic: "Previous peaks or previous resistance should be new support," keeping the broader market trajectory intact.
Upcoming Economic Data
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on this week:
- On Tuesday, August's NFIB index of small business optimism data will be released by 6:00 a.m., and July's consumer credit data will be out by 3:00 p.m. ET.
- No data is scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
- On Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 5, August's PPI, core PPI month-over-month, and PPI year-over-year data will all be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
- July's monthly wholesale trade data and August's existing home sales report will both be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.
- On Friday, August's CPI, core CPI month-over-month, CPI year-over-year, and core CPI year-over-year data will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September's preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey data will be released by 10:00 a.m., and August's monthly Treasury balance report will be out by 2:00 p.m. ET.
Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session, up 3.26% to hover around $94.46 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.30% to hover around $4,393.40 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.20% lower at the 98.9750 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 1.30% lower at $78,400.28 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets were lower on Tuesday as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, China's CSI 300, Australia's ASX 200, and India's Nifty 50 indices all fell. European markets were also lower in early trading.
