Monday is shaping up to be one of those days where the market wakes up, looks at the news, and decides to start the week with a bit of a frown. U.S. stock futures are pointing lower across the board, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all in the red, following Friday's downbeat close.
The culprit? A weekend that brought a fresh wave of geopolitical and trade anxieties. Over the weekend, U.S. military strikes hit Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. air bases in Jordan on Sunday. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump turned up the heat on trade tensions, calling Canada "the worst" for trade abuses and insisting his tariffs have "saved" the U.S. auto industry. It's a lot to digest before your first cup of coffee.
But there's more on the plate this week. Investors are gearing up for a heavy dose of economic data, with Friday's August employment report taking center stage. And the earnings calendar is packed with some big names in AI infrastructure, including Dell Technologies Inc. Dell Technologies (DELL), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and Broadcom Inc. Broadcom (AVGO), along with cybersecurity leader Palo Alto Networks Inc. Palo Alto Networks (PANW).
Before we get to all that, let's rewind to Friday. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address to deliver a message that was anything but dovish. His warning: the fight against inflation is far from over. He said inflation remains too high, the labor market is effectively at full employment, and financial conditions may not be restraining the economy much at all. In other words, don't expect rate cuts anytime soon—and maybe even expect the opposite.
The bond market seems to be listening. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.71%, and the two-year is at 4.31%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 61.9% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its September meeting. That's a notable shift, and it's putting pressure on equities.
Here's a quick snapshot of where the major indices stand this morning:
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, are both lower in premarket trading. SPY is down 0.12% at $768.44, while QQQ is off 0.043% at $716.74.
Walmart
- Walmart Inc. Walmart (WMT) is just 0.049% higher despite news that it agreed to pay $50 million to settle a Department of Justice lawsuit. The suit alleged that Walmart's pharmacies unlawfully filled opioid prescriptions, fueling the national opioid epidemic. The settlement is a drop in the bucket for the retail giant, but it's a reminder of the ongoing legal overhang.
- Market data indicates that WMT maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms, but it scores well on growth.
ONEOK
- ONEOK Inc. ONEOK (OKE) is up 0.27% after announcing a big deal. The company agreed to acquire Brazos Midstream's Permian Midland Basin assets in a $4.425 billion all-cash transaction, along with a $9 billion minority equity investment. That's a hefty bet on the Permian, and investors seem to like it.
- Market data indicates that OKE maintains a strong price trend in the short, long, and medium terms, with a solid value score.
Rezolve AI
- Rezolve AI PLC Rezolve AI (RZLV) is 3.39% higher after announcing a global strategic alliance with Tech Mahindra Ltd. The partnership aims to accelerate the deployment of agentic commerce across large enterprises worldwide. Agentic commerce is the buzzword du jour, and Rezolve is riding that wave.
- Market data indicates that RZLV maintains a strong price trend in the short and medium terms but a weak trend in the long term.
FingerMotion
- FingerMotion Inc. FingerMotion (FNGR) is correcting sharply, down 15.83% in premarket trading. That's after Friday's wild 129.53% surge, which came as investors reacted to corporate updates detailing new management's strategic pivot into behind-the-meter artificial intelligence and high-performance computing data center infrastructure across North America, along with an alliance with BlueFlare Energy Solutions Inc. When a stock moves like that, a pullback is almost inevitable.
- Market data indicates that FNGR maintains a weak price trend in the long, short, and medium terms.
Cues From Last Session
Friday's session was a mixed bag. Consumer discretionary and communication services stocks managed to buck the overall trend and end higher, but most S&P 500 sectors closed lower, with information technology, utilities, and industrials leading the decline. Here's how the major indices finished the day:
Insights From Analysts
Mohamed El-Erian, the ever-quotable economist, sees a market caught in "a tug-of-war between top-down macro policy and bottom-up corporate earnings." On one hand, robust corporate fundamentals—especially from big tech names like Nvidia Corp. Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom—are cushioning sentiment. On the other, underlying structural pressures are threatening broader market stability.
El-Erian points to sovereign debt dynamics as a key crosscurrent. Rising U.S. yields—with the 10-year at 4.73% and the 30-year at 5.20%—reflect what he calls the "flow-of-funds strain facing the US bond market," exacerbated by foreign sales of U.S. securities. The Treasury's impulse to suppress long-end yields is understandable, he says, to protect housing and consumer affordability, but he warns of "valid warnings of market distortion and unintended systemic side effects."
On policy, El-Erian echoes the market's read on Warsh's Jackson Hole speech: it was hawkish. With markets now pricing in a higher probability of a September rate hike, and with domestic macro signals mixed, he expects ongoing volatility across energy, foreign exchange, and sovereign yields to dictate near-term direction. Friday's August Employment Report will be a key data point.
Upcoming Economic Data
Here's what investors will be watching this week:
- Monday: No data scheduled.
- Tuesday: August's flash S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m., followed by August's ISM manufacturing PMI, July's construction spending, and July's JOLTS job openings at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- Wednesday: August's ADP national employment report at 8:15 a.m., July's factory orders at 10:00 a.m., and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- Thursday: Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 29, July's U.S. trade balance, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks at the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview, all at 8:30 a.m. ET. Then August's flash S&P U.S. services PMI at 9:45 a.m., August's ISM services PMI at 10:00 a.m., and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking at the 'Connecting Communities' online event at 3:00 p.m. ET.
- Friday: The big one—August's employment report, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, all at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets
Oil is catching a bid this morning. Crude Oil WTI futures are up 3.45% in early New York trading, hovering around $86.34 per barrel. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely providing support.
Gold, on the other hand, is slightly lower, down 0.37% to around $4,438.70 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index is also down 0.13% at 99.5690.
In crypto, Bitcoin Bitcoin (BTC) is trading 0.50% higher at $78,411.64 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Globally, Asian markets were mixed on Monday. South Korea's Kospi and China's CSI 300 rose, while Australia's ASX 200, India's Nifty 50, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Japan's Nikkei 225 all fell. European markets are also mixed in early trading.
So, it's a busy week ahead. With geopolitical tensions simmering, a hawkish Fed, and a pile of economic data on the way, buckle up. The market's going to have plenty to chew on.
