U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy had some blunt words for Canada this weekend: trying to outlast President Donald Trump in a trade war is a losing bet. Speaking on Fox News Sunday, Duffy said Prime Minister Mark Carney will eventually have no choice but to return to negotiations as American tariffs pile up.

"To think that they're going to go to war with Donald Trump and actually win that war with the U.S., I think it's foolish on their part," Duffy said. He framed the administration's position as a push for "fairness for the American worker," with Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer leading the charge.

Duffy predicted Carney would "come to the table very, very quickly because it's going to be devastating for his country."

The tension escalated Saturday when Washington slapped 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods after talks broke down. The duties hit wine, dairy, furniture, cement, and clothing, and notably apply even to products that qualify under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a departure from earlier measures. Trump had briefly paused the tariffs after claiming the two countries "have a DEAL," but that pause didn't hold.

Carney, for his part, isn't backing down. He rejected Washington's final terms, saying the U.S. "asked too much and offered too little." Starting Sept. 8, Canada will "match Washington's new tariffs dollar for dollar," targeting U.S. steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.

This isn't just posturing. The stakes are enormous. Reuters notes that nearly 70% of Canadian exports head to the United States. And the damage is already visible: Statistics Canada found that Canadian merchandise exports to the U.S. ended 2025 11.1% below March levels, a hangover from earlier tariff disruptions.

Trump, meanwhile, is turning up the heat rhetorically. On Sunday he said Canada wants "the benefits of being a State, without being one!!!" He's also claimed the U.S. doesn't need Canadian goods, even though Canada supplies more than 60% of U.S. crude-oil imports.

Carney's government has committed nearly $25 billion to support workers and businesses hit by the tariffs while trying to diversify export markets. But Duffy argues economic pressure will eventually force Ottawa back to the table. Carney, however, is holding firm, saying Canada "will not allow any nation to determine our future."

For now, the standoff continues, with both sides digging in. But if Duffy's prediction is right, the question isn't whether Canada will blink, but when.