Apple Inc. (Apple (AAPL)) managed to claw its way back to the No. 2 spot in China's smartphone market during the 2026 618 shopping festival. The trick? Slashing prices on its latest iPhones. But even with discounts of up to 2,000 yuan (about $290) on the iPhone 17 Pro series, sales still fell from a year earlier.

According to Counterpoint Research, Apple's iPhone sales dropped 9% year over year during the four-week 618 promotional period. That's despite a strong sequential rebound from the previous month. The problem: last year's 618 event saw even more aggressive promotions on the iPhone 16 series, making for tough comparisons.

Apple started its promotions about a month before the festival, combining official discounts, e-commerce platform incentives, and trade-in offers. It worked well enough to push Apple past rivals like OPPO and vivo, but the broader market was in a funk.

China's overall smartphone market shrank 13% year over year during the period, according to Counterpoint. Rising memory prices forced manufacturers to raise prices and scale back discounts, which dampened already soft consumer demand. It's a tough environment for everyone.

Well, almost everyone. Huawei was the standout performer, posting year-over-year growth when no other major brand could. The company grabbed a 21% market share, driven by strong demand for the Enjoy 90 Pro Max and solid sales of the Mate 80. Meanwhile, Chinese Android vendors like OPPO, HONOR, vivo, and Xiaomi all saw double-digit sales declines as they prioritized profitability over aggressive discounting.

Looking ahead, Counterpoint expects China's smartphone market to weaken further in the second half of 2026. Vendors and supply chain partners have signaled that higher prices are likely to stick around, and manufacturers are sticking with a profit-first strategy, trimming shipment plans. Counterpoint now forecasts a double-digit decline in China's smartphone shipments for the full year.

Apple Stock Technical Analysis

Despite the China headwinds, Apple's stock continues to trade well above its major moving averages, signaling a strong long-term uptrend. The stock sits 6.8% above its 20-day simple moving average, 7% above its 50-day SMA, 13.6% above its 100-day SMA, and 16.2% above its 200-day SMA. The 20-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, and the 50-day stays above the 200-day SMA, reinforcing a bullish "golden cross" formation.

Momentum indicators also look constructive. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is above its signal line, suggesting buyers still control the near-term trend despite the stock's extended rally.

On the upside, resistance is near $317.50, close to Apple's 52-week high of about $317.40. A decisive move above that level could attract additional buying interest. On the downside, initial support sits around $287.50, near the rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

Apple Earnings And Analyst Outlook

Apple is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on July 30. Wall Street expects earnings of $1.89 per share, up from $1.57 a year earlier, on revenue of $108.86 billion compared with $94.04 billion in the prior-year period. The stock trades at about 37.9 times earnings, reflecting a premium valuation.

Analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating with an average price forecast of $324.16. Recent analyst moves include Evercore ISI reiterating an Outperform rating with a $365 price forecast, KGI Securities downgrading the stock to Hold with a $315 price forecast, and Bank of America maintaining a Buy rating with a $380 price forecast.

Apple Price Action

Apple shares were up 0.65% at $314.68 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to market data.