The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, sending a clear signal that tensions in the region are far from over. U.S. officials said the IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the strait, causing substantial damage to both vessels. The attack comes as a blow to hopes for a peaceful resolution under the Trump administration's Iran peace deal.

Prediction markets are reflecting the shift. On Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, over $30 million has been wagered on the contract "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?" After the strikes, the odds of a return to normalcy have dropped. Bettors now see a 45% probability of traffic resuming before Nov. 1, 2026, down 9%. The odds improve to 54% a month later, down 7%, and peak at 60% for Jan. 1, 2027, after an 8% decline.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO) reported that a tanker was hit by an "unknown projectile" about 10 miles east of Limah, Oman. Fortunately, there were no casualties and no environmental damage reported.

Iran is doubling down on its control. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated earlier this month, "The Strait of Hormuz is defined by Iranian command, not by CENTCOM." That line seems to be more than just rhetoric now.