The S&P 500 ended Wednesday basically flat — down just 0.10% to 7,358.22 — as investors held their breath ahead of Micron Technology Inc.'s quarterly report. But if you ask the crowd on Polymarket, Thursday's open is almost certainly going to be green. The prediction market's June 25 contract shows a 97% probability that the index opens higher.

That kind of conviction doesn't come out of nowhere. After the bell, Micron Technology (MU) reported quarterly results that blew past Wall Street's expectations and guided current-quarter revenue well above analysts' estimates. The stock surged nearly 15% in after-hours trading. And it wasn't alone. Qualcomm (QCOM) rallied 14% after raising its long-term non-handset revenue outlook, and the good vibes spread to other chip names: Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT) all gained in sympathy.

So the bull case is pretty straightforward: Micron's blockbuster earnings have revived enthusiasm around the AI trade, and market strategists argue that the recent tech pullback has actually broadened market leadership, with strength rotating into industrials and financials. S&P 500 futures were up 0.79% early Thursday, reflecting that optimism.

But there's a big caveat, and it's coming later today. Investors are waiting for May's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. After policymakers adopted a more hawkish tone last week, a hotter-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, potentially capping the market's upside even with the earnings-driven rally. Alongside the PCE report, traders will also get the final first-quarter GDP reading, durable goods orders, and jobless claims.

And then there's geopolitics. The White House requested $87.6 billion in supplemental funding related to the Iran war, a proposal that immediately drew opposition from Congressional Democrats. That's a reminder that markets don't operate in a vacuum.

For context, Wednesday's Polymarket bet played out as expected: the S&P 500 opened at 7,370.88, slightly above Tuesday's close of 7,365.46, so the June 24 contract resolved "Up." That contract saw $33,656 in traded volume, with betting remaining volatile but maintaining an upward bias throughout the session.

So will Thursday's open follow the same script? The prediction market says yes, but the PCE data could always throw a wrench in the works. Stay tuned.