Investor Kevin O’Leary thinks American politics works a lot like the stock market: it swings, it corrects, and eventually it comes back to the middle. With the 2028 presidential election already generating chatter, O’Leary took to X on Wednesday to lay out his theory.
“Politics, like markets, tends to be cyclical. The pendulum swings, voters react, and the country often moves back toward the center over time,” O’Leary wrote. He argued that candidates who focus on “pragmatism, economic growth, and job creation” are more likely to win than those pushing ideological extremes. In his view, voters ultimately reward “moderation and execution” over fiery rhetoric.
It’s a classic O’Leary take—practical, market-minded, and skeptical of dogma. And it comes as the 2028 race is already taking shape, even if most candidates are still playing coy.
Vice President JD Vance recently said he’ll evaluate a potential run after the midterm elections, but for now he’s focused on his current job. He told reporters he doesn’t want future ambitions to interfere with his duties, and that conversations with President Donald Trump about 2028 are “infrequent and mostly strategic.”
On the Democratic side, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) hasn’t ruled out a bid either. She said her focus is on “changing this country” and prioritizing long-term policy outcomes over titles, adding that she responds to current conditions rather than career planning.
And then there’s Anthony Scaramucci, the former White House communications director and SkyBridge Capital founder, who briefly entered the conversation with an April Fools’ prank. He posted campaign-style messaging and a “Mooch 2028” hat, but it was quickly recognized as satire. Still, the fact that a joke about running gets attention shows how hungry the political world is for 2028 news.
O’Leary’s cyclical theory suggests that after years of polarization, voters might be ready for a more centrist figure. Whether that’s Vance, Ocasio-Cortez, or someone else entirely remains to be seen. But if history is any guide, the pendulum will swing—and the candidate who catches it in the middle could have the edge.
