For years, the average American weight grew alongside the economy, reaching an obesity rate of nearly 40%. Yet, with the popularization of GLP-1 medications, analysts and academics are examining a completely new angle – what happens when millions of people suddenly want smaller lunches?

With more than half of Americans projected to be obese by 2030, the drugs have moved from niche treatments into a mass-market phenomenon. Originally developed to treat Type 2 diabetes, these drugs work by boosting insulin production, lowering blood sugar, slowing stomach emptying, and targeting brain regions associated with hunger.

The result is powerful appetite suppression, with users consuming up to 21% fewer calories. However, implications stretch far beyond the healthcare industry.

Disrupting the Food Chain

Food ranks at the very top among the fundamental drivers of consumer behavior. When pharmaceutical breakthroughs begin tinkering with appetite, the results ripple through the entire supply chain and show up in corporate earnings.

“While we’re all salivating at the prospect of where AI can go in the years ahead, perhaps the bigger leap in the near term is the technological miracle that is stopping us salivating at all,” Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of macro and thematic strategy, wrote in a recent note.

Drugmakers are moving beyond weekly injections toward oral formulations, dramatically lowering barriers to use. Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) says prescriptions for its Wegovy pill surpassed 3 million within five months of launch, while Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has introduced its own oral option, Foundayo.

A growing field of competitors, including Structure Therapeutics Inc. (GPCR), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), AstraZeneca PLC (AZN), Zealand Pharma A/S (ZLDPF), and Roche Holding AG (RHHBY), is racing into the market.

Affordability is also improving. While GLP-1 therapies can cost as much as $1,000 per month out of pocket, upcoming Medicare changes are expected to allow millions of seniors to access the medications for roughly $50 monthly, CNBC reported.

Still, there are limits to the revolution. Nearly two-thirds of patients discontinue treatment within 12 weeks, and many regain weight after stopping, suggesting the most profound economic effects depend on long-term adherence.

Shifting Consumer Behavior

Researchers increasingly see a shift away from volume and toward what economists call “premiumization.” Consumers may eat less, but they appear willing to spend more on nutrient-dense products, particularly protein.

“That is, upon adoption, GLP-1 users desire lower volumes of protein but place greater value on nutrient density or other characteristics typically found in higher-margin food products,” said Justin Bina, assistant professor at Arizona State University.

That dynamic creates winners and losers.

Among the beneficiaries are pharmaceutical companies led by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, specialty grocers like Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM), protein-focused food brands like BellRing, Inc. (BRBR), and apparel retailers as consumers buy smaller clothing sizes. Surveys show many users reduce purchases of candy, chocolate, ice cream, and salty snacks while increasing purchases of fruits, vegetables, nuts, and protein shakes.

Airlines may also emerge as unlikely winners. If average passenger weight falls significantly, fuel consumption declines as well. An analysis by Michigan State University found that lower passenger weight could reduce fuel use by 514 million gallons annually.

“The amount saved by the airlines would be approximately $2 billion dollars a year,” Professor Bill Knudson noted.

Assessing Market Exposure

The losers are easier to spot. Packaged food giants like PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) and The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) face a twin headwind of declining volume and pricing pressure across legacy snack, chocolate, and sugary lines.

Trucking feels the impact, too. With food consumption falling, analysts estimate demand could decline by roughly 3 million food-and-beverage truckloads annually.

Finally, fast-food chains and casual dining operators face lower foot traffic. Directly exposed sector-specific plays would include the First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG). However, the pressure is already shrinking the sector, as AdvisorShares Trust liquidated its Restaurant ETF (EATZ) last month.