Salesforce Inc Salesforce (CRM) is hoping to change the narrative when it reports first-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday. The stock is trading near three-year lows, and the software sector has been battered by fears that AI will replace the need for human workers — and the software they use.

Here's what the numbers say, what experts are watching, and why this earnings report matters more than usual.

The Numbers

Analysts expect Salesforce to report first-quarter revenue of $11.06 billion, up from $9.83 billion a year ago, according to market data. The company has beaten revenue estimates in seven of the last ten quarters, including the most recent Q4.

On the bottom line, the consensus is for earnings per share of $2.96, up from $2.58 in the year-ago period. Salesforce has beaten EPS estimates in five straight quarters and nine of the last ten.

So the company has a track record of delivering. The question is whether that's enough.

What the Experts Are Saying

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods is cautious. He notes that while Salesforce has beaten estimates, the stock has only traded higher after four of the last eight earnings reports. “Salesforce keeps putting up the numbers, but like many of its software peers, Wall Street isn't buying the celebration,” Woods said in a recent note.

The core issue, Woods says, is how AI is impacting Salesforce's per-seat licensing model. “It's that existential overhang keeping its downtrend firmly in place despite the beats.” CEO Marc Benioff has been pushing Agentforce as the answer, but investors want proof that AI agents aren't just replacing existing revenue streams.

On the technical side, Woods sees support at $167, but warns that a head-and-shoulders topping formation could send shares to $140 if that level breaks.

BTIG analyst Allan Verkhovski is more optimistic, with a Buy rating and $255 price target. But he's not expecting Q1 to be the turning point. “The first quarter is seasonally the weakest for bookings,” he said, adding that it may take another quarter to provide “investor confidence.” Verkhovski sees long-term upside but acknowledges the debate around Agentforce will continue. “The current valuation suggests to us that some investors are pricing in CRM's demise.”

Key Items to Watch

In April, Salesforce announced an expanded partnership with Google Cloud that lets AI agents run end-to-end workflows on both platforms. Investors will want to hear more about the financial impact of teaming up with one of the world's largest companies.

Another critical metric is remaining performance obligations (RPO), which totaled $72.4 billion in Q4, up 14% year-over-year. A strong RPO number would signal that customers are still committing to long-term deals despite the AI uncertainty.

Benioff has said Agentic AI “is a tailwind” for the company. The market will be looking for evidence that Salesforce's tools are AI-proof — or at least AI-complementary.

Stock Price Action

Salesforce shares were trading at $180.38 on Tuesday, up 0.17% on the day. The stock's 52-week range is $163.52 to $278.81, and it's down 28.4% year-to-date and 34.5% over the past year. That puts it at levels not seen since March 2023.

Wednesday's report won't just be about the numbers. It's about whether Salesforce can convince Wall Street that it's not a victim of the AI revolution, but a beneficiary.