Space is the place on Tuesday, and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is riding the rocket. Shares of the space-based cellular broadband company jumped more than 7% in premarket trading, hitting $113.34, as excitement around a potential SpaceX IPO continues to fuel investor enthusiasm across the sector.
SpaceX, Elon Musk's private space venture, is reportedly eyeing an IPO that could value the company at over $2 trillion. That kind of number tends to make investors look for other ways to play the space boom, and AST SpaceMobile — which is building a constellation of satellites to connect standard smartphones directly — is one of the more direct bets on space-based communications.
The Starlink factor is a big part of the story. Analysts estimate that SpaceX's Starlink satellite broadband service generated roughly $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, and that business alone could justify a huge chunk of that $2 trillion valuation. For AST SpaceMobile, the logic is similar: if Starlink can make satellite internet a mainstream business, why can't space-based cellular broadband do the same?
Technical Analysis: Momentum Is Strong, But Signals Are Mixed
AST SpaceMobile has been on an absolute tear over the past year, with a 12-month gain of 326%. That's the kind of return that gets people's attention. But when you look under the hood, the technical picture is a bit more complicated.
The stock is currently trading 44.1% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $78.54, which screams momentum. But here's the twist: the 20-day SMA is below the 50-day SMA, which is a bearish crossover signal. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, forming a golden cross — a classic bullish sign. So you've got a tug-of-war between short-term bearishness and long-term bullishness. That's a recipe for volatility.
The MACD indicator, which measures momentum, is currently above its signal line, suggesting that upward momentum is building. If the stock can hold its recent gains, the bulls might win this fight. But traders should keep an eye on two key levels:
- Key Resistance: $130.00 — a round-number area where rebounds have stalled before.
- Key Support: $89.73 — the 100-day SMA, which could act as a floor if the stock pulls back.
Earnings Preview: Losses Narrowing, Revenue Growing
AST SpaceMobile is scheduled to report its next quarterly results on August 10, 2026 (estimated). The numbers are moving in the right direction, but the company is still in its early stages.
- EPS Estimate: Loss of $0.29 per share (improving from a loss of $0.41 a year ago)
- Revenue Estimate: $34.54 million (up from just $1.16 million)
That revenue growth is eye-popping, but it's coming from a very low base. The company is still pre-commercial in a big way, and profitability is likely years away. That's why analysts are cautious.
Analyst Consensus: Hold, With a Wide Range of Views
The stock carries a consensus Hold rating, with an average price target of $68.90 — well below Tuesday's premarket price of $113.34. That gap suggests either the analysts are too conservative, or the market is getting ahead of itself. Recent analyst actions show a mix of caution and slight optimism:
- UBS: Neutral, lowered forecast to $80.00 (May 12)
- B. Riley Securities: Neutral, raised forecast to $85.00 (May 12)
- Barclays: Underweight, raised forecast to $65.00 (April 9)
None of these targets are anywhere near the current price, which is a red flag for momentum traders. But in a market driven by narrative and sector-wide enthusiasm, fundamentals sometimes take a back seat.
Momentum Score: Off the Charts
According to market data, AST SpaceMobile scores a 97.81 on momentum — a Bullish reading that indicates the stock is outperforming the broader market by a wide margin. That's the kind of number that momentum traders love, but it also means the stock is extended and could be vulnerable to a sharp reversal if sentiment shifts.
ETF Exposure: ASTS Is a Big Fish in Some Small Ponds
AST SpaceMobile has meaningful weight in a few thematic ETFs, which means fund flows can have an outsized impact on the stock:
- First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (FPX): 3.81% weight
- Defiance Connective Technologies ETF (UFOX): 4.41% weight
- Procure Space ETF (UFO): 5.36% weight
Because ASTS carries such significant weight in these funds, any inflows or outflows will force automatic buying or selling of the stock. That can amplify moves in either direction.
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