So, the S&P 500 just keeps going up. It rose 0.8% on Wednesday to close at a record 7,022.95, which is the kind of number that makes you do a double-take. The rally continues as investors increasingly bet that the U.S.-Iran war might be winding down. You know how markets are—they start pricing in the end of a conflict long before the diplomats finish shaking hands.
And if you're wondering whether this momentum carries into Thursday, well, the crowd on the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket has an opinion. Traders there are leaning bullish heading into the April 16 session, with 60% betting "Up" after $147,830 in volume traded on the April 15 outcome. It's like a real-time sentiment poll, but with money on the line.
Why does this matter? The benchmark index has now fully recovered from its Iran war losses and pushed to fresh all-time highs. That's a pretty sharp reversal, highlighting how quickly investor sentiment can shift when there's hope for de-escalation. It's not just hope, though—President Donald Trump said in a Fox Business interview aired Wednesday that the Iran war is "very close to over," reiterating that Tehran wants to strike a deal. When the president talks, markets listen, even if they sometimes take it with a grain of salt.
The recent rally has been driven by a few things: easing geopolitical fears, a sharp pullback in oil prices from recent highs, and improving confidence that the economic fallout from the war might be contained. But it's not all smooth sailing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested on Wednesday that economic growth this quarter might "be slower than it was" due to the war. And there's still the question of whether this rally can broaden beyond large-cap technology stocks, which have led much of the recent gains. It's one thing for a few big tech names to soar; it's another for the whole market to join the party.
Here's the bull case: The S&P 500 has posted gains in 10 of the last 11 sessions. That's a pretty good run. S&P 500 Futures were modestly higher in early trading, up 0.19%, suggesting markets might build on those gains. Plus, investors will be watching fresh earnings before the bell from some big names: PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW). Earnings season is always a wildcard—good numbers could add fuel to the rally, while disappointments might put a brake on it.
As for how the previous bet played out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 6,978.17, above the prior close of 6,967.38, as optimism around Iran negotiations supported premarket sentiment. The April 15 Polymarket bet resolved "Up," meaning traders correctly anticipated a higher open. So, the crowd got it right this time. Whether they can do it again on Thursday is the next question.
