As speculation about a possible Tesla-SpaceX merger continues to bubble, cryptocurrency market observers are asking a crucial question: could it drain liquidity from Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) the way SpaceX's (NASDAQ: SPCX) IPO once did?
A Merger Wouldn't Trigger the Same Bitcoin Selling an IPO Did
MarketDash reported in October how analyst Benjamin Cowen previously linked Bitcoin's weakness ahead of SpaceX's IPO to softness before Anthropic's expected listing. His theory: investors were holding back capital for the next big offering.
GSR's Spencer Hallarn made a similar point to Reuters in June, saying "crypto is a funding currency for a lot of this" as investors weighed SpaceX's planned $75 billion raise.
A merger would work differently from an IPO, since RBC's hypothetical all-stock model has Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shareholders simply swapping their shares for SpaceX shares and no cash required.
With nothing to buy, there's no reason for investors to sell Bitcoin to fund it.
SpaceX and Tesla's Combined Bitcoin Stash Isn't the Risk It Looks Like
Tesla's latest quarterly filing confirms an independent committee is exploring a closer relationship with SpaceX, including a possible business combination, though the company cautions no deal is assured.
Here's what the two companies actually hold in Bitcoin:
- SpaceX: 18,712 BTC, unchanged since December 2025
- Tesla: 11,509 BTC, also unchanged
- Combined: 30,221 BTC, worth $2.53 billion at Bitcoin's September 30 close of $83,553.85, now worth roughly $2.16 billion, a $370 million decline
That drop has nothing to do with a merger. It's just Bitcoin's price falling since the quarter closed.
SpaceX spent $48.07 billion on property and equipment over the first nine months against $13.10 billion in operating cash flow, a gap that might suggest pressure to raise cash.
But the company still held $89.86 billion in cash and securities at quarter-end, which undercuts any theory that capex spending alone would force SpaceX to sell its Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Polymarket currently prices a formal merger announcement at 54% by June 30, 2027, and 68% by year-end 2027.
Could Huang Joining SpaceX Be Bullish for Bitcoin? Not Yet
Elon Musk replied it "would be an honor" to a ZeroHedge post urging him to hire Jensen Huang, with Polymarket traders now pricing roughly 8% to 10% odds Huang joins SpaceX by year-end.
If that hire happened, it could arguably be a modest bullish signal for Bitcoin specifically, since SpaceX already holds 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet and adding a high-profile AI leader could reinforce investor confidence in the company managing that treasury alongside its broader business.
That theory didn't play out Thursday, though as SpaceX shares rose about 2%, while Bitcoin fell roughly 3% alongside the broader AI and chip stock selloff.
The split shows Bitcoin and SpaceX stock barely move each other right now, since the $2.2 billion crypto holding is a rounding error against a company worth well over $1.5 trillion.
