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Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) CEO Dan Schulman has a message for anyone wondering if SpaceX can waltz into the U.S. wireless market: bring a very large checkbook. During Verizon's third-quarter earnings call, Schulman estimated that a hypothetical SpaceX terrestrial network could cost "somewhere between $300 billion and half a trillion" over seven or eight years.
That's not a SpaceX spending plan, of course. It's Verizon's view of the barrier to entry. And it's a big one.
Schulman didn't offer a detailed cost model, but he sketched out the broad strokes. A carrier-scale buildout would involve 65,000 to 80,000 macro sites, backhaul using fiber and potentially satellites, radio access network equipment, and "a tremendous amount of spectrum." Then there's the less glamorous stuff: retail operations, customer service, and back-office systems. All of it adds up.
The comments came in response to a question about SpaceX and Starlink entering the core mobile market. Schulman argued that satellite connectivity alone would have a limited addressable market compared with terrestrial networks, particularly in suburban and urban areas.
"We always knew that they needed a terrestrial network to have any chance at providing a competitive service," he said.
Schulman's core argument is that SpaceX can't sidestep conventional wireless economics just because it already operates a satellite constellation. Building a network is building a network.
"If they build one, they're going to look and feel like every other network," he said, adding that there would be "no magic wand" or "radically lower structural cost advantage." In his view, SpaceX would ultimately end up with similar capabilities and cost structures to existing carriers.
He also estimated that a full buildout would take at least four to six years. That timeline could give incumbents time to improve their services. But it's worth repeating: this is Verizon's assessment of a potential entry scenario, not a confirmed SpaceX plan.
Despite the eye-popping cost estimate, Schulman didn't dismiss SpaceX's ability to execute. Quite the opposite.
"I also operate under the assumption that everything SpaceX says they will do, they will do, and that they will execute flawlessly," he said.
So the real question isn't whether SpaceX can afford it. It's whether SpaceX can find a cheaper path than the one Verizon anticipates. Could it combine satellite infrastructure, spectrum access, partnerships, or other assets into something less capital-intensive? That's the multibillion-dollar question.
For investors, the $500 billion figure should be treated as an estimate of the potential scale of a terrestrial buildout, not a verified SpaceX budget. The key variables to watch are concrete moves by SpaceX on spectrum, tower infrastructure, and carrier partnerships, and whether those moves signal an ambition to build a nationwide network rather than focus on satellite connectivity.
In other words, watch what SpaceX does, not just what Verizon says it might cost.
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