Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) is still the market's favorite AI infrastructure story, the kind of stock that gets a fresh billion-dollar headline every few weeks. This week's headline: NVIDIA is putting serious money behind the relationship.

The stock traded nearly 1% lower Tuesday even as the S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.97%. Communication Services rose 0.1%. So Meta lagged a rally in its own sector. That is the sort of thing that makes you wonder what the market knows that the press release does not.

NVIDIA Writes a $3 Billion Check

NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Meta expanded their AI partnership around Meta's Muse family of models, and NVIDIA plans a $3 billion equity investment tied to Meta's equity offering. The companies aim to improve training and inference performance while lowering operating costs. That is the whole ballgame in AI right now: not who has the biggest model, but who can serve it without lighting money on fire.

The expanded collaboration also includes NVIDIA's OpenShell Reference Architecture, OpenShell for secure AI-agent deployment and NVIDIA Sentry for monitoring agent behavior. In plain English, NVIDIA is not just selling Meta chips. It is helping Meta build the plumbing that keeps AI agents from wandering off and doing something embarrassing.

BNP Paribas Does the Muse Math

BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones maintained an Outperform rating and a $940 price forecast, implying 49% upside from the Oct. 26 reference price of $630.60. That is a bold number for a stock that cannot seem to get out of its own way this month.

Jones estimates Meta spends about $180 annually, or roughly $15 per month, to serve the average free-tier Muse user. He estimates monthly costs of about $90 for Power users and $570 for Maximum-tier users, leaving the product unprofitable at current cost levels. Read that again: the heaviest users cost Meta $570 a month to serve. That is not a subscription business yet. That is a charity with a login page.

The Path to Break-Even Runs Through Cheaper Tokens

Jones said Meta aims to reduce Muse serving costs by 10 times over the next year, which could allow the product to reach gross-profit break-even as early as 2027. A 10x cost reduction in twelve months is the kind of goal that sounds insane until you remember how fast inference costs have been falling across the industry.

But he cautioned that users may consume more tokens as they find additional uses for Muse, potentially offsetting some efficiency gains. This is the classic efficiency trap: make something cheaper and people will just use more of it. Jones believes Meta would need users to complete dozens of transactions annually to break even without substantial cost reductions. Dozens. Per user. Per year. That is a lot of transactions.

$8 Billion by 2028, If the Pieces Fit

Jones estimates Muse could generate more than $8 billion in incremental revenue by 2028 with positive gross margins if Meta combines subscriptions with payment transaction fees and advertising. That is the trifecta: charge for access, take a cut of commerce, and sell ads against the whole thing.

He said monetization could take longer as Meta experiments with business models and continues prioritizing adoption and engagement. Translation: Meta is still in land-grab mode, and the revenue is a 2028 problem.

Jones highlighted Muse's recent launch in Japan and expects additional international rollouts. He sees Meta's large existing distribution base as an advantage in attracting users and testing new monetization approaches. Meta has roughly three billion people already touching its apps. If even a sliver of them try Muse, the funnel is already built.

The Chart Is Not Cooperating

Meta trades 11.4% below its 20-day SMA and 5.8% below its 50-day SMA, reflecting weaker near-term momentum. The stock also sits 0.6% below its 100-day SMA and 0.8% below its 200-day SMA, leaving it just under its longer-term trend measures. In other words, the long-term thesis is intact but the tape is grumpy.

Where the ETFs Stand

The Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF (NYSE:IGPT) holds an 8.32% weight in Meta, while the Natixis Loomis Sayles Focused Growth ETF (NYSE:LSGR) carries a 9.04% weighting. The VanEck Communication Services TruSector ETF (NASDAQ:TRUC) holds a 9.46% weight in the stock. Significant inflows or outflows from these funds can translate into corresponding trading activity in META shares, which is worth remembering on days when the stock moves without obvious news.

META Price Action: Meta Platforms shares were down 1.00% at $624.26 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to market data.