Helima Croft, the Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, has a message for anyone assuming the U.S.-Iran standoff will cool down: don't count on it. In fact, she thinks the risk of escalation could rise after the upcoming midterm elections in November.

Trump Could Be Pushed to Take Tougher Stance

During an interview with CNBC's Fast Money, Croft was asked if there was a risk of escalation between the two countries. "I think there's a significant risk post-midterm that President Trump is pushed by his regional allies, people in Washington, to take a tougher stance against Iran," Croft said.

She added that there was a "finish-the-job camp" that could push President Donald Trump, saying that the White House cannot leave the "regime in Iran in place, being able to operate the way they are now," pointing to ship strikes in the waterway, as well as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis engaging Saudi Arabia.

Economist and Echelon Wealth Partners co-founder Peter Schiff, over the weekend, expressed similar concerns, saying that oil prices on the global markets could soar following the end of the midterm elections in November. Schiff separately warned that oil prices could move toward $150 a barrel after the midterm elections.

Strait of Hormuz Transits Have Increased

Croft was asked about the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which, according to a recent report by shipping data tracker Kpler, pointed to over 19 million barrels of oil moving through the waterway daily. "We did see an increase from August onward in transits through Hormuz," Croft said.

However, she warned that it was being aided by a "massive deployment" of U.S. naval presence in the region. "By some accounts, 30% of U.S. naval assets are being used just on the blockade of Iran," the analyst said, calling it a "patchwork arrangement" to aid ship movement.

"They [vessels] are still being targeted. So it [Strait of Hormuz] is not open for business," she said. Croft added that Gulf nations were saying that the measures were not sustainable.

Risk Analyst Warns of Uptick in Tanker Strikes

Obsidian Risk Advisors' Managing Principal Brett Erickson warned that more strikes from Iran on vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf could be coming after the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said that it was adding 122 vessels to a 'sanctions' list for being non-compliant.

He had earlier warned that Iran's strikes on vessels beyond the Strait of Hormuz could signal that Tehran was "taking it easy" on Trump.

Iran Warns Undersea Cable Strikes

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that Tehran could target undersea cable infrastructure.

This comes following comments made by Iran's Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warning countries in the Gulf region against helping AI companies that aid U.S. military infrastructure.

Oil, Gas Movement

At the time of writing this article, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures contracts ending in December 2026 surged 2.30% to $100.81. Brent futures contracts ending in December surged 1.71% to $111.42 at press time.

Like oil futures, oil ETFs like the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) also grew during pre-market trading. The USO ETF surged 2.39% to $164.72, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (NYSE:UCO) ETF gained 2.36% to $65.38 during pre-market trading.

However, the national average price of gas fell on Tuesday, with the American Automobile Association (AAA) data showing that the national average price of gas was $4.2786/gallon. However, diesel saw a marginal uptick to $6.3199/gallon on Tuesday.