Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) is walking into its third-quarter earnings report with investors playing a familiar game: expecting a lot from Amazon Web Services while nervously eyeing the company's ballooning AI and data-center bills. Add a shaky broader market to the mix, and you've got a stock that needs to deliver.

Amazon shares fell nearly half a percent in Thursday trading as risk appetite weakened. Nasdaq futures dropped almost 1%, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.39%.

AWS Growth Sets a High Bar

BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones expects Amazon to post broad-based strength, led by continued momentum at AWS.

Jones rates Amazon Outperform with a $355 price forecast, implying 39% upside from the cited $256.30 share price.

He believes investors are looking for AWS revenue growth of 43% to 45%, well above the 38% consensus estimate. Jones also sees operating income closer to $28 billion, compared with the $25.9 billion consensus.

Retail Business Tracks Near Expectations

Jones expects Amazon's first-party and third-party retail revenue to remain roughly in line with consensus.

Online stores and third-party seller services are tracking toward about 5% year-over-year growth.

Fourth-Quarter Hurdle Remains High

For the fourth quarter, Jones believes investors want the high end of Amazon's guidance to reach $247 billion in revenue and $35 billion in operating income.

Those figures would top consensus estimates of $244 billion in revenue and $33 billion in operating income.

Jones also expects Amazon to raise its 2026 capital spending outlook by $5 billion to $10 billion as the company prepares for elevated investment in 2027.

Data-Center Returns Stay in Focus

Jones said investors remain focused on margins and returns from Amazon's data-center investments as spending stays elevated. Despite those concerns, he continues to view Amazon's current valuation as an attractive entry point.

Earnings and Analyst Outlook

Amazon's next earnings report is estimated for Oct. 29, 2026.

Analysts expect earnings of $1.95 per share, unchanged from a year earlier. Revenue is projected to rise to $202.04 billion from $180.17 billion.

The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9.

Amazon carries a consensus Buy rating, with an average price forecast of $335. Recent analyst actions include:

• Tigress Financial: Maintained Buy and raised its price forecast to $385 on Oct. 6.
• TD Cowen: Maintained Buy and a $350 price forecast on Oct. 5.
• Rosenblatt: Maintained Buy and raised its price forecast to $360 on Sept. 30.

ETFs With Significant Amazon Exposure

Amazon also holds sizable positions in several exchange-traded products, including:

• First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN): 9.78% weighting.
• Eagle Capital Select Equity ETF (EAGL): 8.71% weighting.
• MicroSectors FANG+ 3x Leveraged ETN (FNGU): 9.76% weighting.

Changes in investor demand for these products can influence trading activity in Amazon shares, although the impact depends on fund flows and portfolio rebalancing.

Price Action

AMZN Price Action: Amazon.com shares were trading 0.38% down at $258.92 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to market data.