Obsidian Risk Advisors Managing Principal Brett Erickson warned Wednesday that a fire detected aboard a Marshall Islands-flagged VLCC near Fujairah could have broader implications for the Gulf of Oman's increasingly important ship-to-ship oil-transfer network.

'It's Game Over,' Analyst Says

In a post on X, Erickson quoted a post by Faytuks Network that said a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was spotted on fire by NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) Satellites. The images show a fire incident off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman.

Erickson said that another vessel had been struck in the region, but that this incident took place "just a few miles away from where the Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers take place."

While ship-to-ship transfers are legal and widely used in legitimate maritime commerce, some vessels involved in sanctions evasion or so-called shadow-fleet activity switch off or manipulate AIS and other tracking signals to obscure their movements.

STS is also used by the "shadow fleet" or "dark fleet" to bypass sanctions. Shadow fleets use tactics like hiding or faking AIS data to obscure their location, as well as the cargo's origin.

"This is a clear sign from Iran that they simply weren't TRYING to fully close Hormuz. If the STS transfers are shut down…" Erickson said, "It's game over," the analyst added.

As per data from Marine Traffic also confirmed that the Marshall Islands-flagged ship Dhalkut's navigation status was "stopped" and it was off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman.

Iran Tensions Escalate

The news comes as the U.S. is reportedly preparing to launch a fresh round of attacks against Iran, with the Department of War targeting Iran's Nuclear and Energy infrastructure.

Trump's former national security advisor John Bolton said that Tehran's regional allies had been thwarted, but that the country was trying to outlast the U.S.'s control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Security Chief Mohsen Rezaee slammed the U.S.'s economic restrictions, criticizing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Rezaee also reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen under economic pressure.