President Donald Trump's proposed $5,000 "Trump Dividend" is running into a familiar problem: voters like free money, they just don't believe it's coming.

Only 21% of registered voters say they believe Trump would deliver the payment if Republicans retain control of Congress, according to an Economist/YouGov poll of Election Day registered voters. Meanwhile, 57% said he probably or definitely would not.

The Pitch and the Price Tag

Last month, Trump promised a $5,000 "dividend" to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans retained control of both chambers of Congress in November. He announced the proposal at a Republican midterm convention in Dallas, calling it the "Trump Dividend" and saying, "I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of $5,000."

The proposed payment was estimated to cost about $1.23 trillion, raising questions about how it would be funded.

Voters Like the Money, Doubt the Messenger

The poll found that 48% supported sending every adult U.S. citizen a $5,000 payment, while 40% opposed it. Support was higher among Republicans, at 61%, while Democrats opposed the idea at 48% to 39%.

But enthusiasm and expectation are two very different things. Among Republicans, 45% expected Trump to follow through, compared with just 4% of Democrats.

The Doubters Have Company

Previously, Americans across political lines supported several affordability measures, but Trump's proposal to send $5,000 checks to all adults received support from fewer than one-quarter of voters.

Former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin also doubted the plan, saying, "I don't think so."

Holtz-Eakin said Trump's earlier DOGE checks and tariff-dividend payments were similarly unrealistic, arguing that DOGE would not generate enough savings and Trump lacked authority to issue the tariff checks. He also said Congress would need to authorize the latest $5,000 dividend.

Lawmakers on Both Sides Push Back

Earlier, Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) criticized Trump's $5,000 dividend and said Americans should instead receive compensation for higher fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) warned that the payments could worsen the affordability crisis by adding to the national debt, saying the plan "does not fix the affordability crisis. It makes it worse."

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by MarketDash editors.