AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) just received something few satellite companies can claim: explicit backing from the U.S. and Japanese governments.

A new technology agreement named AST SpaceMobile and Rakuten's satellite partnership, while Japan's J-LEO program could bring roughly $1 billion of non-dilutive, non-debt government capital to the project.

But the stock still has something to prove. ASTS was trading up on Tuesday, breaching $63.43 after jumping more than 8%, while its 200-day moving average sits near $81.04.

Japan Changes the Equation

The U.S.-Japan Technology Prosperity Deal specifically welcomed cooperation between Rakuten and U.S.-based AST SpaceMobile to develop and deploy low-Earth-orbit satellite infrastructure. The two governments also said they would pursue Indo-Pacific connectivity using government financing and assistance to mobilize private investment.

For AST SpaceMobile, the Japanese opportunity is potentially much more than another carrier relationship.

Japan's communications ministry preliminarily selected the Rakuten-AST joint venture for its J-LEO initiative, with an expected value of up to approximately $1 billion in government capital. AST has said that funding is expected to be non-dilutive and non-debt, potentially covering roughly half of the investment in the relevant satellites.

That could help AST build its constellation without putting the entire burden on shareholders.

$63 Is Testing $81

The stock, however, remains far from a confirmed turnaround.

ASTS has spent months below its longer-term trend, and the 200-day simple moving average is about $81.04 — roughly 28% above its price. The 50-day moving average is at around $62.82, putting the stock almost directly at that shorter-term technical level after Tuesday's rally.

That makes the setup unusually clean for momentum investors: $63 is where the recovery is being tested; $81 is where the bigger trend comes into focus.

A sustained move through the 200-day average would not prove ASTS has entered a new bull market, but it would give investors a stronger technical signal that recent fundamental catalysts are shifting sentiment.

AST Still Has to Deliver

The Japan announcement arrives alongside another commercialization milestone. AST SpaceMobile and TELUS completed their first integration test between TELUS' wireless network and AST's space-based network, successfully demonstrating broadband data, voice calls and text messaging between smartphones and satellites.

AST also says it has partnerships with more than 60 mobile network operators collectively covering more than 3 billion subscribers. But the company remains deep in its buildout phase: second-quarter revenue was $31.5 million, while cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash stood at about $2.72 billion at June 30.

That leaves investors with a simple test. Japan is helping validate the infrastructure. TELUS is helping validate the technology.

Now AST SpaceMobile needs to turn that validation into satellites, service and revenue — and get the stock through $81.