Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took to Twitter yesterday with a victory lap, declaring that the U.S. is showing the world "what real economic growth looks like" under President Donald Trump. His evidence: America's 26% share of global GDP, productivity leadership, and dominance of the world's most valuable companies.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of 'The Black Swan,' was not impressed. He replied angrily, disputing the claim outright.

"Bessent you idiot who the f— are you fooling?" Taleb wrote. "Under Trump THESE NUMBERS HAVE DECLINED."

So who's right? Here's the fun part: mostly both of them, depending on which direction you're looking. The data largely back Taleb on direction, though Bessent's headline figures still hold up.

Has America's Share of Global GDP Fallen?

Bessent said the U.S. produces 26% of global nominal GDP despite having only about 4% of the world's population.

That is broadly correct. World Bank data show U.S. GDP at about $29.3 trillion of $111.67 trillion globally in 2024, or roughly 26.2%, and $30.77 trillion of $118.35 trillion in 2025, or about 26.0%.

So Bessent's 26% figure holds up. But Taleb is also right on direction: America's share slipped by about 0.2 percentage point from a year earlier.

Is U.S. Productivity Falling?

Bessent said U.S. firms lead the G20 in productivity.

That claim holds up. McKinsey says U.S. firms have the highest productivity levels and rates of productivity growth among G20 economies.

Taleb does have some support on direction. BLS data show nonfarm business productivity growth slowed from 3% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025. Productivity itself continued rising and was 2.2% higher year over year in the second quarter of 2026.

So Bessent is right that the U.S. remains a productivity leader. Taleb is right that productivity growth has slowed, but not that productivity itself has declined.

What About America's Biggest Companies?

Bessent said more than 60 of the world's 100 most valuable companies are American.

That was true just before Trump returned to office. EY counted 62 U.S. companies in the global top 100 at the end of 2024.

By June 30, 2026, EY's latest count had fallen to 56.

So on this measure, Taleb is right about the direction: the number of U.S. companies in the global top 100 has fallen from 62 to 56 since Trump's second term began.

Has Real Economic Growth Slowed?

On Bessent's broader "real economic growth" boast, Taleb has a clearer case.

BEA data show real GDP growth slowing from 3% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025.

Overall, Taleb has the stronger case on direction. America's share of global GDP has edged lower, real GDP growth has slowed and EY counts fewer U.S. companies among the world's 100 most valuable than before Trump returned to office.

His productivity claim needs more qualification. U.S. labor productivity itself has continued rising, even though the pace of growth has slowed.

Polymarket traders currently put the chance of a U.S. recession by year-end at about 8%, with roughly $2.26 million traded on the market.

Investors are also showing little sign of recession anxiety. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched fresh records Tuesday, keeping SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) near record territory.