President Donald Trump has warned that a Democratic victory in the 2026 midterms could send the U.S. into a 1929-style depression, but economist Peter Schiff argues an economic downturn could arrive regardless of which party controls Congress.

Trump Warns Of 1929-Style Depression

Trump made the warning while promoting his pledge to give every adult American $5,000 if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate.

"If the Democrats win, you will have an economic depression much like 1929," Trump said in a video posted to Truth Social on Saturday.

He also argued that Republican control would allow the administration to return money to Americans, citing record tariff revenue and economic gains.

Trump has estimated the proposed "Trump dividend" would cost about $1 trillion.

Peter Schiff Challenges Trump’s Economic Warning

On Monday, Schiff pushed back on the president’s prediction, arguing that a potential depression should not automatically be attributed to the midterms’ outcome.

"Trump predicts a 1929-style depression if the Democrats win the midterms," Schiff wrote on X. "If he’s right, it’s only because a depression is coming regardless of the outcome."

Schiff added that Trump’s prediction could provide a political explanation for future economic problems, saying the "forecast enables him to blame Congress for every problem that follows the election."

Midterms Bring Economic Stakes Into Focus

The comments come as Democrats show increased competitiveness in several traditionally Republican states.

A new New York Times/Siena University poll found Democrats tied or leading in five traditionally Republican states, prompting Trump and other GOP leaders to campaign in states he carried by double-digit margins just two years ago.

Last month, Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, also said the U.S. had entered a particularly challenging economic environment, marked by high debt and elevated interest rates.

According to Federal Reserve data, the top 1% of U.S. households now hold a record $60.3 trillion, or 32.5% of the nation’s total net worth.

By comparison, the bottom 50% hold $4.3 trillion — about one-fourteenth of the wealth held by the richest 1%.