Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL) keeps doing the thing where it spends enormous sums on artificial intelligence and then hands out the results at prices that make everyone else sweat. The latest installment: Gemini 4 Argon, which landed this week to generally approving nods from BNP Paribas and Jefferies.
Both firms see the same story. Google has the research, the proprietary computing infrastructure, the distribution and the balance sheet. That combination is hard to beat, even if you happen to build a slightly better model on any given Tuesday.
BNP Paribas Sees More Ways to Monetize Gemini
BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones said Gemini 4 Argon reinforces Google's commitment to competing at the AI frontier. He highlighted Alphabet's combination of AI research, proprietary computing infrastructure, broad distribution and financial resources as key advantages.
His expectation is that Google eventually offers a wider range of AI models across different price points, letting it serve more use cases while balancing performance, latency and cost. That is a nice way of saying Google can sell you a Ferrari, a Honda or a bicycle, and it owns the road they all drive on.
BNP Paribas also sees potential for Google to introduce a consumer-facing agent similar to Meta Platforms Inc.'s (META) Muse, distributed through its existing consumer ecosystem. The firm has a $420 price forecast on Alphabet, representing 22% upside from its Sept. 30 price of $344.10.
On the pricing front, Google plans to introduce Argon at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens, with cached input tokens priced at a 95% discount. Jones also pointed to CEO Sundar Pichai's comment that "you're going to see us iterating rapidly," as evidence of Alphabet's continued push to advance its models.
Jefferies Says Pricing Could Force Rivals to Respond
Jefferies analyst Brent Thill also views Gemini 4 Argon as a positive development, but he cautioned that investors still need to see how the model performs outside benchmark testing. Benchmarks, after all, are a bit like a job interview. Everyone is impressive until the actual work starts.
Thill described the AI model race as a "game of leapfrog," with different developers repeatedly taking the lead on features and performance, speaking to CNBC on Thursday.
He identified Argon's pricing as a particularly important competitive move, saying it is roughly 50% cheaper than some rival models and could force competitors to adjust their own pricing. That could increase pressure on standalone AI models and make the broader platforms surrounding them more important.
Google's Ecosystem Could Matter More Than Model Leadership
Thill believes Google and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) hold strong long-term positions because enterprises need AI integrated with applications, data, infrastructure and existing workflows. He said Google does not necessarily need to lead every model cycle because its existing platform gives it multiple ways to embed and distribute AI.
Developers may currently switch between models based on price, speed and performance, but Thill does not expect that behavior to continue indefinitely. He believes companies with the broadest platforms could ultimately gain an advantage.
Thill called Gemini 4 Argon "a great step in the right direction," while stressing that Google still needs to show that its benchmark results translate into real-world performance.
Analysts See Broader Value Beyond a Single Model
Together, BNP Paribas and Jefferies see Alphabet's opportunity extending beyond one model launch. Their views center on Google's ability to combine competitive pricing, rapid model development and its existing ecosystem to expand AI adoption and create additional avenues for monetization.
GOOG Price Action: Alphabet shares were up 0.53% at $336.71 during premarket trading on Friday, according to market data.