Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) is heading into its fiscal first-quarter earnings report on Oct. 1 with a distinctly cautious Wall Street crowd behind it. Several analysts have trimmed their price forecasts in recent days, and the mood is less "just do it" and more "just show us something."

The stock carries a consensus Hold rating, with an average price forecast of $43.75. That's a number worth keeping in mind as you read the parade of cuts below.

Here's the recent analyst scorecard. RBC Capital cut its price forecast to $40 from $45 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. Deutsche Bank lowered its forecast to $37 from $45 and kept a Hold rating. Piper Sandler cut its forecast to $38 from $45 and maintained a Neutral rating.

Evercore ISI lowered its forecast to $34 from $46 with an In Line rating. Bank of America Securities went further, downgrading Nike to Underperform and cutting its forecast to $30 from $47.

Not everyone is running for the exits. Oppenheimer lowered its forecast to $52 from $60 while maintaining an Outperform rating, and Barclays cut its forecast to $48 from $52 while keeping an Overweight rating.

The Real Risk Isn't the Quarter, It's the Outlook

RBC Capital Markets warned that the bigger risk may come from the company's outlook rather than its first-quarter results. Analyst Piral Dadhania said Nike's current-quarter guidance is relatively tight, making a first-quarter miss less likely. The focus, instead, will be on what management says about the coming quarters.

RBC expects first-quarter revenue of about $11.2 billion, down 4.3% year over year on a reported basis and 4.7% in constant currency. The firm forecasts diluted earnings of 43 cents per share.

Geographically, the picture is mixed. The analyst expects North American revenue to fall 1% in constant currency, while Europe, the Middle East and Africa could decline 5%. Greater China remains the biggest pressure point, with RBC forecasting a 15% drop amid elevated inventories and discounting. Nike Direct revenue is expected to fall 8%.

RBC's first-quarter revenue estimate is about 1% below consensus, while its EBIT forecast is 2% below Wall Street expectations.

The firm also expects Converse revenue to fall 25% in constant currency, saying the brand's turnaround could take time as Nike rightsizes the business and aligns its cost base with weaker sales.

A New CFO and a Possible Expectations Reset

Dadhania said Nike is making progress against its strategic goals, but the turnaround is taking longer than expected, with weak sell-through and elevated marketplace inventories still weighing on the recovery.

One potential catalyst: new CFO David Denton could reset expectations ahead of Nike's capital markets day on Nov. 16-17. RBC also expects second-quarter guidance to point to another mid-single-digit revenue decline, even as gross margin improves.

The firm lowered its fiscal 2027 organic revenue growth forecast to a 3.1% decline from a previous 2% drop. RBC also cut its fiscal 2027 EBIT estimate by 3% and reduced its EPS forecast by 4% to $1.66.

Still, RBC sees some signs of improvement. Nike.com traffic has recovered from a low base, while newer products such as Pegasus Premium and Vomero 18 have generated stronger search interest. But the analyst said marketplace inventories and promotional activity remain key hurdles to a broader recovery.

What Wall Street Expects From the Numbers

Wall Street expects Nike to report earnings of 44 cents per share, down from 49 cents a year earlier. Revenue is expected to fall to $11.33 billion from $11.72 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Those estimates point to continued pressure on sales and profitability. Investors are likely to focus on gross margins, promotional activity, inventory levels, and management's outlook.

Nike trades at about 17.1 times earnings, which puts more emphasis on whether management can show tangible progress in its turnaround.

The Beat-and-Still-Slowing Pattern

Here's the interesting wrinkle: Nike has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average EPS surprise of about 54%.

In its most recent quarter, Nike reported earnings of 20 cents per share, beating the 13 cents estimate. Revenue of $10.97 billion also beat the $10.86 billion consensus estimate.

In December 2025, Nike reported earnings of 53 cents per share versus estimates of 38 cents. Revenue of $12.43 billion also beat expectations of $12.22 billion.

So Nike has repeatedly cleared Wall Street's lowered expectations. The question now is whether any upside comes from improving demand or mainly from cost controls. With revenue and earnings expected to decline again, that distinction matters.

NKE Price Action: Nike shares were down 0.18% at $35.77 at the time of publication on Wednesday. The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $35.21, according to market data.