Anthropic is heading toward a potential blockbuster IPO, but the artificial intelligence company has yet to say how much of the offering, if any, will be reserved for retail investors.
Anthropic has been reported to be targeting a valuation of about $2 trillion, which would make the IPO larger than Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s (NASDAQ:SPCX) $1.78 trillion debut and potentially the largest IPO ever.
"Money is massing in the private markets, and companies are going public later," Rebecca Kacaba, CEO of capital-markets platform DealMaker, told MarketDash. "Most of the wealth created by a company like Anthropic or OpenAI happens while it's private."
Anthropic has not publicly announced a retail allocation for its potential IPO. That contrasts with SpaceX, which reportedly reserved up to 30% of its IPO for retail investors. Kacaba said that offering also forced brokerages to build infrastructure capable of handling retail demand at a much larger scale.
"They created indication-of-interest systems for millions of accounts, confirmed orders at pricing, and set up allocation lotteries when demand ran over," Kacaba said.
Brokerages also lowered the barriers to participation, she said, with Fidelity cutting its IPO investment threshold from $500,000 to $2,000 while several platforms had no minimum.
"After SpaceX, there's really no obstacle remaining not to," Kacaba said of providing meaningful retail access.
Retail Wants Into AI
The potential absence of a retail allocation comes as surveys suggest growing frustration over access to private technology companies.
DealMaker's survey of 2,000 U.S. adults found that 67% said they want everyday people to benefit from AI's growth as retail investors. Separately, 63% said they were concerned that $1 trillion IPOs could leave retail investors buying at inflated valuations while earlier investors cash out.
Kacaba said that frustration reflects how much value is now being created before companies reach the public markets.
"At a time when there's a lot of swirl around AI and wealth inequality, a strong retail allocation in Anthropic's IPO helps it set a signal that it wants people beyond just traditional institutions to benefit from its growth," she said.
Who Decides?
The size of a retail allocation ultimately comes down to Anthropic and its IPO banks, Kacaba said.
"The decision sits between Anthropic's lead underwriters, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, who are building the order book for IPO day, and the company itself," she said.
That could make Anthropic's eventual allocation a closely watched part of the IPO process.
"If Anthropic skips retail, then it'll prove that the system is working in the legacy way," Kacaba said.
Private Access Comes With Risks
Retail investors looking to invest in Anthropic before an IPO have other options, including special-purpose vehicles and private secondary transactions. But Kacaba cautioned that those alternatives can be difficult to evaluate.
"SPVs involve buying an interest in a vehicle that holds or claims to hold an underlying equity," she said. "There can be fees and liquidation preferences that can make your position much less profitable than you think."
Private transactions can carry another risk because companies may restrict transfers or retain the ability to void unauthorized transactions, she said.
For Anthropic, the question is now whether its eventual IPO will give retail investors a meaningful way into one of the most valuable companies created by the AI boom, or leave them waiting until after the company reaches the public market.
