Economist Steve Hanke has a blunt message about what record diesel prices are doing to the people who grow and haul America's food: it's crushing them, and he thinks they're blaming the White House for it.
"Farm fuel costs are up $11/acre for corn and $7/acre for soybeans from last year," Hanke wrote on X. "DIESEL PRICES ARE ONE BIG REASON WHY FARMERS AND TRUCKERS ARE TURNING AGAINST TRUMP."
Reuters reported the same increases, citing Purdue University economist Michael Langemeier last Friday.
The numbers behind the frustration are hard to argue with. The Energy Information Administration put U.S. on-highway diesel at $6.285 per gallon on Sept. 14, up sharply from a year earlier. Diesel crossed $6 nationally this month as the U.S.-Iran conflict and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries tightened global supplies. The surge has also prompted calls for possible restrictions on diesel exports.
Why Harvest Season Makes The Timing So Painful
Farmers can't exactly wait out a fuel spike when the crop is ready. Reuters reported that South Dakota farmer Drew Peterson expects to spend as much as $1,500 a day fueling one combine, about twice last year's cost. California vegetable grower Wayne Gularte said his fuel costs rose roughly 40%.
Economists Warn The Pressure Could Stick Around
Other economists warn the pain may not be temporary. Kansas State University economist Gregg Ibendahl said Monday that diesel could remain elevated for at least another year. "Farmers are price takers," he said. "They don't get to set the price of corn or soybeans, so in most cases they just have to absorb higher diesel costs."
American Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum said farm diesel reached $5.45 a gallon on Sept. 4, up from $3.02 a year earlier. University of Illinois economist Nick Paulson told Reuters that "$6-plus per gallon diesel" could put inflationary pressure on seed, fertilizer and other inputs next year. The broader energy surge has also raised renewed inflation concerns.
Truckers Face Their Own Squeeze As Political Heat Builds
Truckers face similar strain because independent operators typically pay fuel bills upfront. DAT Freight & Analytics principal analyst Dean Croke told Reuters that further increases could trigger "diesel price-driven bankruptcies."
Hanke's political claim goes further than available national data. The Associated Press reported frustration over fuel costs among voters on Sunday, including some Trump supporters, but did not establish a broad shift among farmers or truckers. Still, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said high diesel prices are "KILLING FARMERS INCOME" and urged Trump to consider an export embargo.
