Apple Inc. (AAPL) is seeing steady early demand for its latest iPhones, while Wall Street is increasingly focused on the company's upcoming Duo foldable device.
Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Erik Woodring said early demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max “seems fine,” even as Apple enters the cycle with more supply than a year ago.
Speaking to CNBC on Friday, Woodring said delivery lead times for the Pro models were roughly two to four weeks, depending on the region. That is broadly unchanged from last year.
Better Supply Supports Lead Times
Woodring cautioned against placing too much weight on lead times because they reflect both supply and demand.
Apple's Pro and Pro Max production is up about 18% year over year for the second half of the calendar year, he said. Therefore, flat lead times alongside higher supply could point to healthy demand.
China is the exception, with shorter lead times compared with last year.
Woodring believes some Chinese consumers may be waiting for Apple's Duo foldable before choosing between the new premium models.
He said China has historically been the strongest market for foldable smartphones. Apple is expected to make the Duo available in mid-October.
Woodring said investors should watch whether iPhone lead times rise or begin to fall about two weeks after availability, when they typically peak.
Cramer Calls Duo 'Revolutionary'
CNBC's Jim Cramer also turned his attention to Apple's upcoming Duo, calling the foldable device “revolutionary” while describing the iPhone 18 as a more incremental upgrade.
Cramer praised the foldable device's display and crease-free design after testing it ahead of launch. He said the Duo could become particularly useful for travel, entertainment and multitasking.
Cramer also highlighted the iPhone 18's battery life and camera improvements after visiting an Apple Store in New York.
Apple Valuation Remains A Key Risk
Despite optimism around the Duo, Woodring said Apple's valuation leaves less room for disappointment.
Woodring said he remains highly optimistic about the Duo and expects Apple could sell nearly every foldable it produces over the next 12 months.
However, he noted that Apple shares have already rallied sharply ahead of the iPhone launch and now trade at a 'relatively rich valuation'. The stock is valued at about 33 times its fiscal 2027 earnings estimate and 30 times fiscal 2028 earnings, compared with a historical peak multiple of roughly 34 to 35 times.
Woodring said Apple is trading at a “relatively rich” valuation of about 33 times his fiscal 2027 earnings estimate, close to its historical peak multiple of roughly 34 to 35 times.
Woodring said further stock gains may require analysts to raise earnings estimates.
He also pointed to Apple's Services business as an important factor. Services growth is expected to fall below 10% in the September quarter for the first time in several years.
Woodring expects growth to accelerate again. However, he said a deeper slowdown in Services could weigh on the valuation investors are willing to assign Apple.
Stock Performance And Technical Analysis
Apple stock edged lower in Monday's premarket session, even as Nasdaq futures rose 0.98% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.63%.
The stock remains near recent highs but could stay range-bound until it clears resistance near $344.50.
Apple remains in a strong uptrend, trading 3.9% above its 20-day SMA, 4.7% above its 50-day SMA and 17.1% above its 200-day SMA. The bullish moving-average alignment supports the broader trend.
Momentum also remains positive, with the MACD above its signal line and a positive histogram.
Key support sits near $300.50. A pullback that holds above shorter-term moving averages would suggest consolidation rather than a broader reversal.
Apple Analyst Outlook
Apple trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 38.5, reflecting a premium valuation. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price forecast of $335.57.
Evercore ISI recently maintained an Outperform rating and raised its price forecast to $380. Bank of America maintained a Buy rating with a $370 price forecast, while TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating with a $400 forecast.
Top ETF Exposure
Apple has significant weightings in several exchange-traded funds.
The stock accounts for about 9.68% of the Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X ETF (TECL), 9.74% of the Motley Fool 100 Index ETF (TMFC) and 9.97% of the VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF (OMAH).
Large ETF inflows or outflows can therefore create additional buying or selling pressure in Apple shares.
Apple Price Action
AAPL Stock Price Activity: Apple shares were trading lower by 0.31% at $335.09 during premarket trading on Monday, according to market data.
