Li Auto Inc. (LI) is having a moment. The Chinese electric vehicle maker said Tuesday that it delivered 37,679 vehicles in August, a solid 32.1% jump from the 28,529 it handed over a year ago. That's also a 23.7% improvement from July's 30,468 deliveries. So, after a rough patch, things are looking up.
But let's put those numbers in context. Li Auto delivered 68,147 vehicles in the first two months of the third quarter. The company had previously guided for quarterly deliveries of 95,000 to 100,000 vehicles. That means September needs to bring in somewhere between 26,853 and 31,853 units to hit the target. Doable, but not a slam dunk.
As of Aug. 31, cumulative deliveries reached 1.80 million. That's a nice round number, but the real story is what's coming next.
New Models Set For September
Li Auto isn't resting on its laurels. The company will launch an updated Li MEGA flagship multipurpose vehicle on Wednesday, with improvements to its interior, cabin technology, and driving performance. Then, in mid-September, it plans to roll out the Li i9, a flagship battery-electric SUV. And if that's not enough, Li Auto will start selling in the Middle East with a product launch in Dubai.
These launches are crucial. The delivery rebound is welcome, but it follows a difficult second-quarter report. Revenue fell 15.1% to 25.7 billion Chinese yuan ($3.78 billion), and the company swung to an adjusted net loss of 1.5 billion yuan. Vehicle margin dropped to 9.4% from 19.4%. Ouch. That's a big squeeze, and new models with better margins could help reverse the trend.
NIO Deliveries Also Rise
Li Auto isn't the only one with good news. Peer NIO Inc. (NIO) also reported Tuesday that it delivered 35,836 vehicles in August, up 14.5% from a year earlier. So the EV sector in China is showing some life, even if the competition is fierce.
Li Auto Analyst Outlook
What do the analysts think? The stock carries a Hold consensus rating with an average price target of $14.53. But recent moves suggest some caution. Piper Sandler lowered its forecast to $13, HSBC cut to $15.60, and Barclays reduced to $14. That's a mixed bag, but the average still sits above the current price.
Momentum and Technicals
On the technical side, things look a bit shaky. Li Auto traded at $12.01, below its major moving averages. It was 3.9% below its 20-day simple moving average of $12.52 and 3.5% below its 50-day average of $12.48. The longer-term trend is even weaker: shares were 17.7% below the 100-day average of $14.63 and 25.3% below the 200-day average of $16.11.
The MACD remained below its signal line, and its histogram was negative. Both signals suggest that buying momentum is fading. The stock faces resistance near $13, where its short-term averages are clustered. Support sits near $12, just above the 52-week low of $11.65.
In Tuesday's premarket session, Li Auto shares fell 0.74% to $12.01. The stock also has a bearish momentum score of 4.09 on the MarketDash Edge scorecard, reflecting its poor performance against the broader market. The Intelligent Livermore ETF (LIVR) holds a 3.01% position in LI, so it's not just retail investors watching.
So, what's the takeaway? Li Auto is showing signs of a comeback, but the road ahead is bumpy. The new models and Middle East expansion could be game-changers, but the company needs to deliver on both sales and margins. For now, the market is taking a wait-and-see approach, and the stock's technicals suggest caution. Keep an eye on September's delivery numbers and the Li i9 launch. That's where the story will be written.
