Venezuela's 25-Year US Oil Deal: A $209 Billion Bet on 1.5 Million Barrels a Day

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Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez dropped a big number on Saturday: a new 25-year energy agreement with the United States that aims to lift crude output to 1.5 million barrels per day. But she was quick to add a caveat—this isn't a giveaway. The country keeps sovereignty over its oil.

A Deal Built on 17 Oilfields

Speaking on state broadcaster VTV, Rodriguez laid out the scope: “This 25-year bilateral project envisages the development of 17 strategic oilfields.” She clarified, “That figure relates solely to the bilateral agreement between Venezuela and the United States.”

The announcement follows President Donald Trump's Friday statement that the U.S. had secured majority control of over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves through a private-sector partnership. The goal? Boost crude supply and ease U.S. fuel prices.

The Money Math

Rodriguez said the broader plan also includes eight greenfield oil blocks. Venezuela currently pumps about 1.25 million bpd—a far cry from its potential, given it holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. Years of underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions have kept production in the doldrums.

But the revenue projections are eye-popping. Rodriguez estimates the agreement could generate about $209 billion for Venezuela over its 25-year term, based on a $65-per-barrel benchmark, with roughly $19 per barrel flowing directly to the state.

She also stressed that the country retained “ownership of and sovereignty” over its natural resources, “while leveraging capital, technology and operational expertise to support the recovery of a strategic industry that has been severely affected by sanctions.”

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) is reportedly among the companies expected to finalize talks to transition its Venezuelan joint ventures into the new framework, according to Reuters, citing two sources close to the negotiations.

From Threats to Praise

Trump's tone toward Rodriguez has shifted dramatically since former President Nicolas Maduro's capture. In January, he warned she could face “a situation probably worse than Maduro.” By March, he was calling her a “terrific person.”

Rodriguez, for her part, publicly thanked Trump for his “kind willingness” to collaborate after he praised her handling of Venezuela's oil sector.

It's a remarkable turnaround, and it underscores how much the geopolitical landscape has changed. For investors, the deal could open up significant opportunities in Venezuelan oil—if the politics hold.