Here's a bit of good news for your wallet: the national average price of gas in the U.S. could dip below $4 a gallon by Labor Day. But before you start planning that road trip, there's a catch. According to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan, even if prices do drop, they might still be the most expensive we've ever seen for this time of year.

Gas Below $4 May Still Be the Most Expensive Ever

In a post on X on Wednesday, De Haan pointed out that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude had fallen below $80 a barrel, and some states were "changing back to winter gasoline a couple weeks early" following the Trump administration's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) waiver. That combination, he said, could be enough to push the national average below the $4 mark by Labor Day.

"We likely have enough to see the national average fall below $4/gal by Labor Day," De Haan said, but he added a word of caution: "it [gas prices] may still be the most expensive ever" during this time of the year.

Oil And Gas Prices

At press time, WTI crude was trading at $81.84 a barrel, while Brent crude was at $87.48. The United States Oil Fund (USO), an oil ETF, slipped 0.09% to $127.23 during overnight trading on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the national average price for a gallon of gas surged to $4.1014, while diesel was averaging $5.6230 a gallon, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Iran War, Trump Criticism

The potential for lower prices comes amid significant geopolitical turmoil. As the Trump administration touted economic restrictions on Iran, Tehran pushed back. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei called the restrictions a violation of international law, describing them as "systemic bullying" by the Trump administration.

Iran's Security Chief had earlier warned that countries participating in the restrictions would be committing an "act of war" against Iran, and threatened that no oil would flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

Meanwhile, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) slammed Trump, accusing him of profiting from the Iran war. She pointed to the President's multi-million dollar holdings in oil companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

Other Democratic leaders also piled on. Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) questioned Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz was free of mines, referencing an earlier statement the President made last week.

So, while the prospect of sub-$4 gas is welcome news, the backdrop of war and political infighting means the energy market remains as unpredictable as ever. Keep an eye on those pump prices, but don't be surprised if they don't stay low for long.