It's Friday, and the markets are doing that thing where they can't quite decide which way to go. U.S. stock futures were mixed in early trading, with the Dow Jones index slipping while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices pointed higher. This follows a Thursday session that saw the S&P 500 close at a fresh record high, so maybe the bulls are just catching their breath.
But there's a lot going on beneath the surface. According to Reuters, the U.S. stated it can maintain its naval blockade of Iran "indefinitely," and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of impending measures "never been seen in the history of economic isolation." That's a pretty bold statement, and it comes after fresh Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has gotten serious enough that the International Energy Agency is now forecasting a 4% drop in global oil supply this year, as shipping traffic in the region falls.
On the inflation front, there's some good news. The July Producer Price Index came in unchanged, which adds to the softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index report we saw on Wednesday. That's a one-two punch of cooling inflation, and traders are starting to adjust their expectations for the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Right now, markets are pricing a 32.4% probability of a rate hike, with a 67.6% chance of no change. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a similar picture, with a 32.6% likelihood of a hike.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 4.66%, and the two-year is at 4.15%. Those are the kind of numbers that make you think about the cost of borrowing, but also about the health of the economy.
Here's a quick look at how the major indices are doing in futures trading:
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were higher in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.098% at $778.64, while the QQQ advanced by 0.17% to $733.3.
Globant
- Globant SA (NYSE: GLOB) shares tumbled by 14.81% after reporting mixed second-quarter financial results and cut its FY26 guidance below estimates. That's a big drop, and it shows how sensitive investors are to guidance these days.
- Market data rankings indicate that GLOB maintains a strong price trend in the short and medium terms but a weak trend in the long term, with a poor quality score.
Workday
- Workday Inc. (NASDAQ: WDAY) fell 0.47% following a nearly 18% rally a day earlier as Reuters reported that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire the company. That's a classic case of buy the rumor, sell the news, or maybe just a pause after a big jump.
- Market data rankings indicate that WDAY maintains a strong price trend in the short and medium terms but a weak trend in the long term, with a moderate growth score.
JD.Com
- JD.Com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) declined by 3.52% even though it returned to operating profit, but it saw its first-ever revenue decline since its 2014 IPO. That's a milestone, but not the kind you want.
- Market data rankings indicate that JD maintains a strong price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a good value score.
Reddit
- Reddit Inc. (NYSE: RDDT) jumped 12.45% as S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the social media platform will replace AvalonBay Communities Inc. (NYSE: AVB) in the benchmark index effective before the opening bell on Tuesday, August 18. Getting added to the S&P 500 is a big deal, and investors are celebrating.
- Market data rankings indicate that RDDT maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms, with a good growth score.
SanDisk
- SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) rose 3.70% as it announced that it expected revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-teens annual rate through fiscal 2028-2030, with adjusted gross margins near 80%, operating margins around 75%, and free cash flow at roughly 50% of revenue. Those are some impressive numbers, and the market is liking what it sees.
- Market data rankings indicate that SNDK maintains a weak price trend in the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term, with a poor value score.
Cues From Last Session
Energy and materials stocks bucked the overall market trend to close lower on Thursday, while most S&P 500 sectors ended higher, led by big gains in tech, real estate, and communication services. The benchmark S&P 500 settled at a fresh record high as U.S. equities rallied following fresh producer price index data.
Insights From Analysts
Alex Sagal, Global Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo, maintains a positive yet measured outlook on the U.S. stock market. He emphasizes that the S&P 500 Index's push into record territory is driven by improving fundamentals rather than speculative hype.
Earnings growth reached 31% in the second quarter, leading Sagal to note, "All-time highs for equity markets are being supported by improving fundamentals, not just preseason-like optimism."
Market participation has also broadened beyond mega-cap leaders, evidenced by the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index reaching new highs.
However, Sagal cautions that ongoing risks like elevated oil prices, high interest rates, and geopolitical tension continue to impact valuations. Declaring that "every strong roster has an injury report," he advises investors to avoid overextending.
His core recommendation is to "stay constructive, but disciplined, with equity-market exposure." He suggests buying U.S. Large Cap Equities and Information Technology on pullbacks while expanding into AI-linked areas like Electrical Equipment, Machinery, Banks, and Construction Materials.
Upcoming Economic Data
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Friday.
- July's retail sales data will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
- June's manufacturing & trade inventories data and August's preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey data will both be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.66% to hover around $82.60 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.12% to hover around $4,345.65 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.20% lower at the 99.7610 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 1.60% lower at $62,724.85 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets were mixed on Friday, as Japan's Nikkei 225, China's CSI 300 and South Korea's Kospi indices. Australia's ASX 200, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and India's Nifty 50 indices fell. European markets were also mixed in early trading.
