Conservative commentator and Daily Wire co-founder Ben Shapiro has some thoughts on the 2028 presidential race, and they're not exactly flattering for Secretary of State Marco Rubio's chances.
During a podcast with Patrick Bet-David on Wednesday, Shapiro laid out why he thinks Rubio might sit out the next election. His reasoning? Rubio is risk-averse, and a run against Vice President JD Vance could blow up his political career no matter the outcome.
Shapiro framed it as a classic prisoner's dilemma. If Rubio runs and loses, he's done. If he runs and wins, he might still alienate the party's base and damage his standing. And if he doesn't run, his future depends on Vance's whims. Given those options, Shapiro figures Rubio will play it safe and stay on the sidelines.
“It’s a rough election cycle anyway because the president’s riding in the 30s and the country’s in the mood for something new — and you lose, you’re done,” Shapiro said.
Shapiro thinks Vance is the likely GOP nominee, but he's not convinced Vance can win a general election. He pointed to Trump's narrow 2024 victory as a warning sign, noting that Vance might struggle to outperform Trump with any particular voter group. Shapiro added that he has no personal beef with Vance, but he disagrees with some of his policies.
Still, when it comes to putting money on it, Shapiro knows where he'd place his bet. “But if I were putting my money on it — if I were in the Kalshi markets — I’d put my money on Vance,” he said.
