If you've been feeling a little extra pain at the pump lately, you're not alone—and it might get worse before it gets better. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan is warning that the U.S. national average price for a gallon of gas could hit $4 by the end of this week, and it's not just because of the usual summer demand.
On Wednesday, De Haan noted that U.S. gasoline demand was running at 8.84 million barrels per day, which he described as "weak." That's particularly concerning because the third week of July is traditionally the peak week for gasoline demand. "If we don't hit >9 [million barrels per day] in weeklies, stronger arguments could be made for demand destruction," he said in a post on X.
Demand destruction is exactly what it sounds like: when prices get so high that people change their habits—driving less, carpooling, or switching to public transit—and that reduced demand becomes permanent. It's a sign that the market is breaking, not just adjusting.
De Haan also predicted that the national average would hit $3.95 by the end of the day Wednesday, and that by the end of the week, it could touch the $4 mark. "With many more states seeing gas prices jump today," he wrote, "I believe by EOD we'll see the national average around $3.95/gal, and by EOW may touch the $4/gal mark."
Economist Mohamed El-Erian echoed that sentiment, saying he expects the national average to hit $4 by the end of July. He also warned that diesel prices could reach $5 per gallon, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The backdrop to all this is the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. President Trump said Wednesday that the Iranian government wants to strike a deal, even as the U.S. Central Command announced further strikes against Tehran. Trump has warned that strikes would continue into next week, with Iranian energy assets being saved for last—a not-so-subtle hint that oil infrastructure could be on the line.
As of Wednesday, the AAA reported the national average for regular gas at $3.89 per gallon, while diesel was at $4.94, up from $4.88 on Monday. Crude oil prices have been volatile: West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $80, trading at $79.30 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped 0.55% to $84.48.
So what does this mean for your wallet? If you're planning a road trip, you might want to fill up sooner rather than later. And if you're an investor, keep an eye on demand numbers—if they stay below 9 million barrels per day, it could signal that the economy is starting to crack under the weight of high energy prices.
