President Donald Trump has been vocal about Greenland and how important it is for the U.S. to take control of the island, which is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. During the recent NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, Trump said, “We took Greenland and, then, stupidly, we gave it back.”
“We shouldn’t have given it back to them, because we’re the ones that need it. We need it for protection of the world, not just the United States,” Trump added. In January, Trump called the Arctic island “imperative” for national and world security. He also said that “No nation or group of nations is in a position to secure Greenland other than the United States.”
But it’s not just Greenland. Trump has also been vocal about acquiring Kharg Island from Iran. Situated 15 miles from Iran’s coast, Kharg Island handles nearly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Trump had also suggested that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state.
So, what are the odds of any of this actually happening? The prediction market is not very confident that the U.S. will acquire any new territory. Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $770,000 has been bet on the contract “Will the US acquire any new territory?” Bettors have placed a 4.6% probability of the U.S. acquiring any new territory before Jan. 2027, which increases to 16% for Jan. 2028 and peaks to 22% for “Before Jan 21, 2029,” the day Trump’s term is scheduled to come to an end.
Trump took to Truth Social on Tuesday to post a photo showing him in the Oval Office with leaders of various European countries. The image included a photo of a map showing Canada, Greenland and Venezuela, with America’s flag imposed on them.
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