Northern Oil and Gas Boosts Buybacks, Holds Steady on 2026 Production Targets

Key Points

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) raised its share repurchase authorization by $150 million to a total remaining capacity of about $243 million after buying back 2.95 million shares in Q2 at an average price of $20.37.
The company reaffirmed its 2026 production and capital spending guidance, with Q2 oil production expected between 67.5 Mboe and 68.25 Mboe per day and record natural gas volumes despite temporary Permian curtailments.
NOG completed 30 Ground Game deals adding over 2,300 net acres and 6.2 net wells for $45 million, and closed its Duvernay acquisition for C$237 million in cash plus about 3.7 million shares.
Technically, the stock trades near its 20-day moving averages but remains below a bearish death cross from June; however, the MACD above its signal line suggests selling pressure is easing.
Wall Street expects Q2 earnings of $0.90 per share on revenue of $568.29 million, down from a year ago, with analysts holding a consensus Hold rating and an average price target of $31.57.

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Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) shares jumped about 2.5% in Monday's premarket session after the company reaffirmed its 2026 production and capital spending guidance and boosted its share repurchase authorization to roughly $243 million.

Buybacks and Guidance

NOG repurchased 2.95 million shares in the second quarter — about 3% of shares outstanding — at an average price of $20.37. The board then increased the repurchase authorization by $150 million, bringing total remaining capacity to approximately $243 million.

The company expects second-quarter oil production of 67.5 Mboe to 68.25 Mboe per day and record natural gas volumes, despite some Permian curtailments.

Production and Spending

About 7,000 Boe per day was temporarily shut in due to weak Waha pricing, and roughly three net wells were deferred to the third quarter. On the bright side, Williston and Uinta production exceeded internal expectations by 4% and 11.5%, respectively. Second-quarter capital spending is expected to be between $190 million and $200 million.

Acquisitions and Hedges

NOG completed 30 Ground Game deals, adding more than 2,300 net acres and 6.2 net wells for about $45 million. The company also closed its Duvernay acquisition for C$237 million in cash and about 3.7 million shares.

On the hedging front, NOG estimated unrealized derivative gains of $155 million to $160 million and realized hedge losses of $85 million to $90 million.

Technical Analysis

At around $19.00, the stock is trading just below its 20-day simple moving average of $19.04 and its 20-day exponential moving average of $19.24. Those levels could act as near-term resistance.

The longer-term trend remains weak. NOG is trading 13.1% below its 50-day simple moving average of $21.76 and 20.7% below its 200-day simple moving average of $23.86. The stock also remains below a bearish "death cross" that formed in June, when the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average.

However, momentum is improving. The MACD remains above its signal line, which suggests selling pressure has eased and buyers are gaining some control. The next key technical level to watch is $20.

Earnings and Analyst Outlook

The company is scheduled to report its second-quarter results on Aug. 6. Wall Street expects earnings of 90 cents per share, down from $1.37 a year earlier. Analysts also expect revenue to fall to $568.29 million from $706.81 million in the year-ago quarter.

Analysts have a consensus Hold rating on the stock with an average price forecast of $31.57. Recent analyst actions include:

Morgan Stanley maintained Underweight and lowered its price forecast to $25 on June 29.
Raymond James maintained Outperform and lowered its price forecast to $30 on June 15.
Morgan Stanley maintained Underweight and raised its price forecast to $29 on May 22.