Iran and the U.S. have agreed to halt hostilities after the two countries exchanged fire in the Gulf over the last few days. The recent hostilities began after an Iranian projectile hit a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran also launched missiles and drones at U.S. military sites in Kuwait, according to a Reuters report. The U.S. military, in response, conducted strikes against Iran.
The hostilities threatened the interim peace agreement signed between the countries, but they have now agreed to renew talks.
What the Prediction Market Is Saying
Amid the hostilities, the chances of Iran walking away from the peace agreement or memorandum of understanding surged. But now, the prediction market tells a different story.
Polymarket, a Polygon (POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on outcomes using the USDC (USDC) stablecoin, is currently running a contract titled "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by…?" Over $500,000 has been bet on the contract so far.
Bettors have placed a 1% probability that Iran will withdraw from the talks by June 30, down by 44%. The odds increase to 19% for July 31, down by 27%.
Both Sides to Stand Down
An official from the Donald Trump administration said, "Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely."
A senior U.S. official said technical talks on implementing the memorandum remain "on track" and deconfliction channels between the two countries remain operational, according to the report.
WTI Crude oil rose 1% to $69.92, while Brent Crude rose 0.77% to $73.16.
